Lagos needs 7,000 new buses to fix its transport crisis

WHEN Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Primero Transport Services Limited, Mr Fola Tinubu, says Lagos needs between 5,000 and 7,000 new buses to function properly, he is not exaggerating. He is describing a structural crisis in Africa’s largest city, one that threatens productivity, quality of life, and Nigeria’s long-term economic ambitions.

Primero, one of the operators of the Lagos Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, currently runs about 500 buses on the busy Ikorodu–TBS corridor in Lagos. Those buses carry thousands of passengers daily, yet they represent only a fraction of what the city requires. With Lagos home to over 20 million people and adding thousands more every day, road congestion has become a permanent feature of urban life. Commuters lose hours daily, businesses lose billions in productivity, and the social cost continues to rise.

Mr Tinubu argues, in an interview with BusinessDay, that without a dramatic expansion of mass transit – buses, rail, and ferries – Lagos cannot support Nigeria’s dream of becoming a $1 trillion economy. “When Lagos sneezes, Nigeria catches a cold,” he says. The city is the country’s commercial engine, but that engine is being choked by traffic gridlock and transport inefficiency.

The true cost of keeping Lagos moving

Primero’s survival over the last decade has been nothing short of extraordinary. When the company began operations, diesel sold for N115 per litre. Today, it is over N1,100, having peaked near N1,600. The naira, once around N169 to the dollar, now trades above N1,400. Every part of a modern bus, from tyres to engines, is imported, meaning every currency devaluation hits transport operators instantly.

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Ten years ago, high-quality tyres cost around N10,000 each. Today, even lower-grade alternatives sell for N70,000 to N120,000. Meanwhile, fares have only doubled over the same period. In real terms, operating costs have risen by thousands of percent, while revenues have increased by barely a fraction of that.

Yet Lagos commuters still rely on BRT buses as one of the most affordable transport options in the city. Mr Tinubu estimates that 80 percent to 85 percent of Primero’s revenue is spent on diesel alone. Without intervention, he warns, the economics of mass transit will continue to collapse.

Why Lagos needs 7,000 buses

Transport planners estimate that Lagos needs at least 7,000 additional buses to meet current demand. This is not about luxury but about basic mobility. Millions of people depend on public transport to get to work, school, hospitals, and markets. Without enough buses, commuters are forced onto motorcycles, informal minibuses, and private cars, worsening congestion and pollution.

The landmass of Lagos is small, and the road network cannot expand fast enough to absorb rising car ownership. Mr Tinubu insists that the only viable future is a world-class public transport system, not one dominated by okadas and unregulated vehicles.

But building such a system is capital-intensive. The Lagos State government cannot fund it alone without neglecting healthcare, education, and security. The solution, Mr Tinubu says, lies in attracting private sector investment, yet that can only happen if the business model changes.

The subsidy question

Globally, public transport is heavily subsidised. In London, about 35 percent–36 percent of transport revenue comes from government support. Without subsidies, fares would become unaffordable, turning buses and trains into elitist services.

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Nigeria faces a paradox: subsidies are politically sensitive and often associated with corruption, yet they are essential for affordable mass transit. Mr Tinubu argues that responsibility must be shared by federal, state, and local governments. Expecting private operators to shoulder all the social costs is not sustainable.

A path forward: CNG and private capital

Primero is now working with the Nigerian government to convert 200 buses to compressed natural gas (CNG). This could reduce fuel costs by up to 40 percent, freeing resources for maintenance and expansion. But Mr Tinubu insists that government must support the conversion financially, as it benefits the wider economy.

Over the years, Primero has relied heavily on financial innovation and the support of Sterling Bank to survive. Still, the firm pioneered cash-flow-backed bonds in Nigeria, raising N16.5 billion from the capital market and setting a new standard for infrastructure financing.

The bigger picture

For Mr Tinubu, transport is not just a business but a development tool. Efficient mobility increases productivity, reduces stress, and makes cities livable. Without it, Lagos risks becoming a bottleneck for Nigeria’s growth.

The message is clear: Lagos cannot move forward without thousands of new buses. The question is whether government, investors, and citizens are ready to embrace the reforms needed to make that vision a reality. If they do, Lagos could become a model for African urban transport. If they do not, the city will remain stuck literally and economically.