Yakassai: Tinubu will be in trouble if Jonathan pairs with Kwankwaso in 2027

A FORMER media aide to ex-Kano governor Abdullahi Ganduje and a former governorship candidate, Mr Salihu Tanko Yakasai, says President Bola Tinubu will be in trouble if former President Goodluck Jonathan pairs with former Kano State Governor, Mr Rabiu Kwankwaso, for the 2027 election.

“Goodluck Jonathan’s card is still at play,” Yakasai said. “If he steps into the race and pairs with Kwankwaso, the president will be in serious trouble,” he said in an interview with The Cable.

He said it was too early to project what will happen in 2027, noting that a lot of factors will be at play before the election. “For instance, Kwankwaso cannot be the presidential candidate; it’s clear that he is vying to be a running mate. One factor I always want people to consider is: who will be the candidate? Is it Peter Obi? Goodluck Jonathan’s card is still at play. Amaechi is also there, although he is unlikely to get the ticket.”

The growing political rift in Kano has pushed two major national figures – Goodluck Jonathan and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso – to the centre of Nigeria’s opposition realignment ahead of the 2027 general election.

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What began as a local fallout between Kano Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf and his longtime mentor, Kwankwaso, is now reshaping the national opposition space, with analysts warning that a Jonathan–Kwankwaso alignment could become the most serious political threat yet to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Kano rift sparks national realignment

Mr Yakasai described the defection of Governor Yusuf from the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) to the APC as both political survival and a historic betrayal that has fractured Kano’s once-united political bloc.

The division has weakened Mr Kwankwaso’s control in Kano but also freed him from local constraints, enabling him to position himself as a national power broker rather than a state-based political godfather.

As a result, Mr Kwankwaso is now widely believed to be exploring opposition coalitions, including the African Democratic Congress (ADC), as part of a broader strategy for 2027.

“The calculation for any northern politician is 2031, not 2027. The south has successfully cornered the north into demanding an eight-year rule in full. Even those who don’t like the president in the south say they would rather have the president continue than have the presidency return to the North,” he said.

Jonathan as the ‘consensus bridge’

Political insiders say Dr Jonathan’s appeal lies in his status as a former president with only one possible term if he returns, making him acceptable to both northern and southern power blocs.

For many northern elites uneasy about another long southern presidency, Dr Jonathan represents a compromise candidate who can stabilise the zoning equation.

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Mr Yakasai said this unique position makes Dr Jonathan the most attractive southern candidate for any serious opposition coalition.

Kwankwaso’s calculated downgrade

While Kwankwaso has contested the presidency before, Yakasai said the former Kano governor was now positioning himself for a vice-presidential role — not as a demotion, but as a strategic step toward 2031.

“The calculation for any northern politician is 2031, not 2027,” he said. “Kwankwaso has accepted that reality. He is positioning himself as a deputy now to remain relevant later.”

Why APC is uneasy

A Jonathan–Kwankwaso alliance would threaten the APC’s traditional northern vote base while reclaiming sympathy votes in the South-South and Middle Belt.

With rising northern dissatisfaction over insecurity, economic hardship, and perceived marginalisation, such a ticket could galvanise voters who feel abandoned by the ruling party.

A new political equation

Though neither Dr Jonathan nor Mr Kwankwaso has formally declared, their names are increasingly dominating coalition talks.

For now, the possibility alone is enough to unsettle the ruling party  and signal that the 2027 race may be far more competitive than expected.