Tinubu records highest odds on crypto prediction platform for 2027 poll

AS political activities ahead of the 2027 general election gather momentum, users of Polymarket, a decentralised prediction platform, have begun placing bets on who will emerge victorious in Nigeria’s presidential race.

Checks show President Bola Tinubu currently tops the prediction chart on the platform as of Monday.

Tinubu is leading with a 68 percent probability rating and has attracted more than $14,823 in trade volume from users betting on the election outcome.

Presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Mr Peter Obi, trails behind in second place with a 25 percent probability rating and $5,937 in trade volume.

Last month, Tinubu secured the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 election after polling 10,999,162 votes against his only challenger, Stanley Osifo, who garnered 16,503 votes.

READ ALSO: Wike promised to deliver PDP to Tinubu in 2027 – Seyi Makinde

Obi, on his part, emerged as the NDC’s presidential candidate unopposed.

Former Minister of Transportation, Mr Rotimi Amaechi, occupies the third spot on the prediction board with a 1.5 percent rating and $2,748 trade volume.

Amaechi had lost the African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential ticket to former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who is Obi’s running mate, has recorded less than one percent probability with $2,265 in trade volume.

Similarly, presidential candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC), Mr Omoyele Sowore, has less than one percent of bets placed on the platform, with a trade volume of $2,926.

Polymarket uses a live graph system that reflects changing political trends and sentiments as traders buy and sell shares tied to candidates’ chances of winning.

Users who believe a candidate will win purchase ‘Yes’ shares, while those betting against the candidate buy ‘No’ shares.

The betting poll, which opened on June 2, has generated more than $28,677 in total trade volume within one week.

According to the platform, the poll is scheduled to close on January 16, 2027, the same day Nigeria’s presidential election is expected to hold.

Each political or social market on the platform assigns shares priced between $0 and $1 based on the likelihood of a predicted outcome.

Where a prediction eventually happens, the share settles at $1, while failed predictions become worthless.

READ ALSO: None of 2027 aspirants has Tinubu’s competence, capacity – George, CEO, Barachel

Share prices on the platform also fluctuate in response to political developments, market demand, and breaking news. For instance, a candidate’s odds may rise if a new alliance or major political endorsement emerges.

Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and conducts all transactions using the USDC stablecoin for betting and payouts.