LABOUR Party presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Mr Peter Obi, is set to formally join the African Democratic Congress (ADC) on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, Economy Post has gathered.

Mr Obi will not be moving to his new party alone. He will be joining the party with his Obidient Movement family and some federal lawmakers, including senator representing Anambra Central, Mr Victor Umeh; senator representing Anambra North, Mr Tony Nwoye; senator representing Abia South, Mr Enyinnaya Abaribe; and a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stalwart, Mr Ben Obi.

Mr Obi has done his political calculations and arrived at a conclusion that the ADC is his best option at having a shot at the presidency in 2027. In 2023, he used the machinery of the Labour Party, which now appears to be headed for the rocks ahead of the 2027 elections.

In spite of the excitement at Mr Peter Obi’s imminent announcement of his new party, the odds are stacked up against him and his new party. First, the party’s presidential ticket will be fiercely contested among Mr Peter Obi, and two other candidates: former Nigeria’s Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and former Rivers State Governor, Mr Chibuike Amaechi.

Atiku Abubakar is the most experienced among the three and understands how to do late-night politicking to woo delegates. He won the PDP tickets in 2019 and 2023. His victory in 2023 remains a major setback for the PDP, as it pitted members of the party against each other, with the embittered ex-Rivers State Governor, Mr Nyesom Wike, determined to have his pound of flesh, having finished as a runner-up at the primaries.

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If Atiku Abubakar emerges as the ADC presidential candidate, then the party will have to scrape its skin to sell him in the South, where President Bola Tinubu already has an upper hand. Should Peter Obi or Chibuike Amaechi emerge, the party will have a very tough job selling them in the North.

Mr Tinubu is already dominant in the South, and controls several states in the North – in spite of the region’s perceived anger against him. Even Kano’s Rabiu Kwankwaso will prefer to do business with President Tinubu, who is already in power, than Mr Abubakar, whose chances of winning the presidency shrank after the 2023 election.

Also, Nigerians are aware that 2027 remains the turn of the Southern Nigeria. The emergence of Mr Atiku Abubakar from the North will deny the South of an opportunity to complete its 8-year tenure. Several voters from the South are aware of this and may not vote for Mr Abubakar, and some fair-minded northerners could work against him.

“There will be bad blood in the polity if the South does not complete its 8-year tenure, and many are aware of this. In fact, politicians will use that against the ADC if Atiku emerges,” said a civil rights advocate, Mr Shekinah Abraham.

Secondly, the ADC does not have structures across Nigeria like the APC or even the PDP. According to analysts, the party may struggle to produce agents in all the local governments in Nigeria during the 2027 election – as it still needs to learn the ropes and convince people that it can win elections.

A political analyst, Mr Obi Atuanya, said time was short for the party to sell itself across Nigeria ahead of the 2027 election.

“Time is short for the ADC. When willl they sell the party in the rural North or riverine areas in the South? It sounds very simple to form a political party, but it’s a tough job to sell it,” he added.

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Also, the odds are stacked against Mr Peter Obi’s candidacy. In 2023, he won Delta, Edo, five states of the South-East, and Lagos, but things have changed dramatically since then. Edo State, which was then governed by a PDP governor, is now controlled by the APC. The governor, Mr Monday Okebloho, has sworn that he will deliver the state to President Tinubu in 2027, promising him 2.5 million votes. He has even asked Mr Peter Obi not to enter his state without informing him.

Right now, all the governors of the South-South have defected to the APC and will try to deliver their states to their party. Ever since Mr Peter Obi won in Lagos in 2023, several people have been punished politically, which explains why the only method adopted by the APC in the state is to stop non-Yorubas, particularly Igbos of the South-East region, from voting. It worked in the governorship poll in 2023, and will most likely work again in 2027, with Mr Tinubu in power.

Analysts predict that the APC governors will massively rig elections in their domains in 2027. Even in places where Mr Peter Obi won in 2023, thugs will likely ensure that voting doesn’t happen, said a political science lecturer, Dr Ahmadu Mohammed.

The Kano-based Mohammed predicted that the government appointees will “rig the 2027 election from A-Z,” noting that, “most apppointees of the government in INEC will try to favour their party, the APC.”

“If there was ever any time the former Anambra State governor had an opportunity to become Nigeria’s president, it was in 2023. At that time, President Muhammadu Buhari was rounding off his second term and was indisposed to his party’s presidential candidate, Mr Bola Tinubu. That was why voting somehow counted. This time, it won’t count. With the dominance of the polity by the APC. I don’t see anybody who can stop Tinubu from having his second term,” he noted.

Analysts add that several members of the Obidient Movement will leave the movement if Mr Peter Obi agrees to deputise Mr Atiku Abubakar. Most of them, mainly young Nigerians, rightly or wrongly, believe that Mr Abubakar is old and has run out of ideas. They say he should support Mr Peter Obi to emerge as a ‘Third Force’ candidate in 2027.

“Most of them think that Atiku is desperate and should support Peter Obi. If their candidate becomes the VP candidate, they will leave,” said Mr Mohammed.