Osun governorship results show 2027 may defy political calculations
THE victory of Governor Ademola Adeleke in the 2026 Osun State governorship election has offered a powerful reminder ahead of the 2027 general elections. Analysts say it has demonstrated that Nigerian voters can still determine who governs them when they turn out, vote and defend their choices.
Adeleke, the candidate of the Accord Party, defeated the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, in a closely watched election held on Saturday, August 15. He secured 511,067 votes and won 19 of Osun’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji polled 444,815 votes and won 11 LGAs.
Adeleke’s victory happened despite several odds against him. His opponent was backed by 31 APC governors, some of who boasted and mocked the governor.
“Before somebody sign (sic) paper, he will dance. Are you not tired? For four years, this man has been dancing. Before he take (sic) breakfast, before he drink (sic) tea, he will dance,” Edo State Governor, Mr Monday Okpebholo, told supporters at the campaign rally one week to the election.
There was also an exchange of banter between Imo State Governor’s Senior Special Assistant on Electronic and Creative Media, Mr Ambrose Nwaogwugwu, and Adeleke’s musician nephew, David, popularly known as Davido.
READ ALSO: Adeleke warns against alleged plot to interfere in Osun results collation
“The reality is that Governor Ademola Adeleke has, in the opinion of many, failed woefully in the discharge of his responsibilities. This is why many Osun voters are determined to vote him out in the August 15, 2026, governorship election,” said Nwaogwugwu, who has never lived in Osun.
“The signals emerging from across Osun State are clear. There is a growing indication that a significant number of voters have rejected the current administration and are prepared to embrace a new direction.”
Even though the spokesman claimed to speak on Governor Hope Uzodimma’s behalf, the Imo State governor later distanced himself from it – when he saw disapproval from Nigerians on social media.
The result is significant beyond Osun because it demonstrates that the strength of a political party at the centre does not automatically translate into victory at the polling booth.
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The APC went into the election as the governing party at the federal level and had campaigned aggressively to take control of Osun. Yet, voters ultimately returned the incumbent governor, who contested under Accord after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
That outcome carries an important lesson for 2027. According to analysts, political parties may control government structures, possess financial resources and command significant political machinery, but the final decision still rests with voters.
Voters can upset political calculations
The Osun election demonstrates why assumptions about electoral outcomes can be dangerous. Many Nigerians feel that the ruling party will do anything to steal the mandate of the people, but they simply could not, due to local and international pressure as well as the popularity of the governor.
Adeleke’s decision to contest under Accord rather than the PDP could have been viewed as a major political risk. Instead, he secured a second term, winning nearly two-thirds of the state’s local government areas.
The election shows that voters can sometimes place candidates, personalities, performance and local political considerations above the traditional strength of political parties.
It also provides an important counterpoint to the growing perception that Nigeria’s 2027 elections will be determined primarily by political structures and elite alliances.
READ ALSO: INEC uploads 87.48% of Osun guber election results on iReV amid concerns
Those factors will undoubtedly matter. But Osun shows that voters remain capable of producing outcomes that defy expectations.
“When you are popular with the people, nobody can steal your mandate. Again, when the electorate stand with you, nobody can successfully rig you out,” said a political analyst, Dr Tom Nwoboshi.
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The Oyo governor, Seyi Makinde, who is also vice chairman of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, hailed the people of Osun State for demonstrating courage by voting for their preferred candidate despite violence and the deployment of federal institutions and powers in an attempt to suppress and subvert their will.
“The results of the election proved again that the people reserve the absolute power in a democracy and that their movement will always triumph over all other considerations,” he said.
What it means for 2027
The biggest lesson for the 2027 elections is that the ballot remains an important instrument of political power.
Nigeria’s next general election will be far larger and more complicated than a state governorship contest. The presidential election will involve competing national coalitions, incumbency advantage, regional interests, economic concerns and intense political mobilisation.
But the fundamental principle remains the same: candidates must ultimately secure the votes of Nigerians, analysts argue. The Osun result should therefore encourage voters who believe their individual ballots cannot make a difference.
“If voters organise, turn out and participate in the electoral process, they can influence who occupies political office,” said a former INEC official, who preferred anonymity.
“The result should equally serve as a warning to politicians who assume that government power automatically guarantees electoral victory.”
The bigger democratic message
The 2026 Osun election is particularly important because it was contested by 15 political parties, with voters ultimately choosing between mainly 3 candidates.
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Economy Post observed that the results were not uploaded on the portal for over 2 hours, drawing suspicions from citizens across Nigeria. However, after mounting pressures, INEC began uploading results.
The lesson from Osun should not be interpreted as a guarantee that the 2027 election will produce any particular outcome. Rather, it demonstrates that electoral outcomes cannot be completely predetermined.
For Nigerians preparing for 2027, the message is simple: politicians may decide who gets on the ballot, but voters decide who gets the mandate.
Adeleke’s victory has shown that political power can change hands through the ballot box and that an incumbent can survive a serious challenge even after changing political platforms.
If the same level of voter participation, scrutiny and insistence on credible elections is sustained nationally, the 2027 elections could once again demonstrate that the ultimate power in a democracy belongs to the people.
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About the Author
Odinaka Anudu
Editor and Managing Editor
Lagos, Nigeria
Odinaka Anudu is a seasoned journalist with nearly two decades of journalism experience. He has won 19 journalism awards and written thousands of stories for both local and international platforms. He has worked in eight different media organisations and travelled widely in various capacities. He is an investigative journalist, a newsroom leader, mentor and lecturer.
