EVERY year, politicians deliberately endeavour to make big headlines and grant thought-provoking interviews. This year will not be different. In fact, there are five political developments to look out for, as politicians navigate another pre-election year.

Opposition Growth

Last year was dominated by the frequent news of politicians moving from their political parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This will likely continue till 2027, but one thing that may happen this year is that the opposition will become more vibrant.

The emergence of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which has seen key opposition leaders join, will likely make the polity more vibrant. Though there could be efforts to throw a spanner in the works of the ADC through the judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the opposition will be stronger against President Tinubu’s administration this year. A political analyst, Mr Kunle Ajibade, said that the social media – rather than the mainstream media- could intensify their attacks on the president this year on the back of the pre-elections policies such as the tax laws

War against tax reforms

Though tax is an economic issue, it appears to have become a political matter, with recent claims that lawmakers’ debated version was different from the government gazetted laws. Determined to raise revenue, President Tinubu says the tax laws are already in place, but lawmakers and several Nigerians had called for its suspension until all contentious issues were resolved.

However, tax could become a much more political issue in the days to come, with opposition leaders, labour unions, netizens and affected Nigerians likely to join protests or tweet concerns.

“In fact, I wont be surprised if the North agitate that the tax laws are meant to impoverish the region. I foresee protests by the labour unions and politicians,” said Mr Ajibade.

He added that the implementation of the laws could trigger law suits against collecting agencies in 2026.

Campaigns

This year, there will likely be intense political campaigns even before they officially begin. President Tinubu will likely advertise his achievements more intensely across media platforns, while the opposition will seize every medium to campaign against him. Whether it is a book launch or birthday, there will be talk about what the government has achieved or how much useless it has become.

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Similarly, as it is in a pre-election year, there will be endorsements of the incumbent administration, with many more people joining the party. There will be more attacks from President Tinubu’s media handlers against the opposition

According to a Lagos-based journalist. Mr Jeffrey Jonathan, the opposition will likely gain more sympathy but could see institutional efforts to frustrate its efforts on many fronts.

“I foresee increased judgments of the courts against the opposition. INEC will threaten sanctions against parties that are campaigning but won’t do jack,” he said.

“I also foresee Nyesom Wike having an upper hand over Sim Fubara in Rivers State. There could be fights, but Fubara will eventually lick his wounds.”

Major defections

This year will see major party defections. There could be more questions around former Kano State Governor, Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso’s loyalty to the opposition cause or his plans to defect to the APC. Dr Kwankwaso would like to join the APC due to his more realistic chance of winning the presidency in 2031, but he does not want his New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) to die.

If the NNPP dies sooner rather than later, his negotiating power fades. Dr Kwankwaso, being an intelligent politician, knows that the APC will be willing to negotiate with him this year to allow his supporters to vote for President Tinubu next year. But the APC won’t negotiate with him if he or his political son, Governor Abba Yusuf, chooses willingly to defect to the party.

Also, there will be questions over whether Abia State Governor, Dr Alex Otti, will remain in the Labour Party or join the ADC.

Governor Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State will likely declare support for President Tinubu’s second tenure, while parties like Labour Party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) may choose to adopt President Tinubu as their candidate.

Deepened Trump interference

Analysts foresee President Donald Trump’s interference in Nigerian affairs in 2026. He may launch more airstrikes this year, but will make his demands.

Political analysts believe Mr Trump is not interested in Nigeria to help the country but argue that he is playing his cards close to his chest. According to Mr Jonathan, “If Trump does not want a regime change in Nigeria, then he wants our minerals. If he wants neither, then he wants Nigeria to jettison China and Russia and do more business with the United States. He wants something and will likely say it sooner rather than later.”