INCUMBENT Governor Chukwuma Soludo is poised for victory in the Saturday’s governorship election in Anambra State, but it is not because he is popular.

Soludo, a professor and candidate of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), is predicted to win the election as none of the 15 candidates comes close to his grassroots base due to the incumbency factory, say political experts. He came in 2021 as a face of change to the pomp and ceremony of Anambra State citizens. A political analyst described him then as ‘breadth of fresh air,’ while another said he would “show that professors are good administrators.”

However, that optimism evaporated four years in. Insecurity worsened under the former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor’s tenure, with multiple taxes becoming the order of the day. On Octobr 2, 2025, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) said: “We used to have a consolidated tax system, but now additional levies such as business premises charges, land use fees, and local government council dues have been introduced. The burden is becoming unbearable, and while we are still engaging with the government, we hope for a resolution soon.”

Seven months ago, traders had protested the high burden of exorbitant fees, levies, and rates imposed on them by the state government. They did so during a sensitisation campaign at Onitsha Main Market under the Tax for Service (T4S) project, which was implemented by the Social and Integral Development Centre (SIDEC) in collaboration with the Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre (CISLAC). The project was funded by Oxfam Nigeria.

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“The economy is already bad, and many traders have been forced out of the market. The government should provide loans instead of imposing heavy levies,” said a woman trader of Ochanja Central Market, Ms Kate Uchebechi.

Up till now, traders in Onitsha Main Market, Ochanja and other major markets still observe sit-at-homes on Monday. The traders told Economy Post that they were still observing it because they could be attacked if they opened their shops that day. Yet, the government of Anambra State under Prof Soludo was not able to assure traders of maximum security should they open their shops on Mondays. For context, the exercise ceased in Awka, the state capital, which was positive news but continued in Onitsha.

Though security is the responsibility of the police and the Federal Government, state governors are regarded as chief security officers, which explains why they can set up local vigilante groups. Prof Soludo established the Agunechemba security outfit, yet he was still unable to combat criminals threatening traders on Mondays.

“Well, it is not totally the governor’s responsibility alone,” said Mr Andrew Anyamele, a university lecturer of political science. “But I must confess that one would expect the chief security officer of the state, who is an economist, to do everything possible to end sit-at-homes on Mondays, which are negatively affecting the state’s economy.”

Soludo’s likely victory

However, Soludo has achieved a couple of wins. In education, he has employed more teachers and reduced out-of-school chidren. In the health sector, he has built five new hospitals, while upgrading 326 health centres. But these are not what will give him victory.

What will give him victory is that Anambra is an APGA state. Citizens of the state are yet to accept the All Progressives Congress (APC), which leaves Candidate Nicholas Ukachukwu in a difficult position. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is dead in Anambra, like it is at the national level. This leaves Candidate Jude Ezenwafor in a tough position.

George Moghalu (Labour Party) and John Nwosu (African Democratic Congress) are in good political parties, but they have no grassroots support in the state.

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“I don’t expect an upset,” said a political analyst, Mr Richard Etiebet.

“The only candidate who could have given Soludo some tough time is Ifeanyi Uba. He won the Senate with a minor Young Progressives Party (YPP). He could have been a formidable candidate, but, unfortunately, he is dead. As for others, I would be pleasantly surprised if there is an upset. But I predict Soludo’s victory.”

Vote-buying

Another reason why Prof Soludo will win is the incumbency factory. Prof Soludo controls teachers, civil servants, transport workers, who form a large chunk of voters. In fact, he pays their wages.

Also, his party has grassroots support and has been in power since 2003 in the state. Also, APGA is seen as the South-East Nigeria or Igbo party – a sentiment that plays to his favour.

There is also the money factor. Prof Soludo promised N1 million cash reward for every ward won by his party. This move, criticised as voter-buying, is already swaying voters.

Our reporter in Anambra also found that money exchanged hands between party agents and voters. Some party agents of APGA were seen sharing N5,000-N20,000 for each voter.

But APGA wasn’t the only party involved. APC, YPP and SDP were most culpable as they dished out N2,000 to N20,000 per voter in various local government areas.