Vortexa: Net crude supply deficit hits 9 million bpd despite rising Atlantic exports

A BLOCKADE at the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stripped about 9 million barrels per day of crude oil from global supply, with alternative sources failing to fully bridge the gap, according to a new report by Vortexa.

Although crude exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast have surged to record levels, much of that increase has been driven by releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Additional supply is also being rerouted through key export corridors such as Yanbu, Fujairah, and Ceyhan, contributing an estimated 3.6 million bpd back into the market.

Even so, the replacement flows remain insufficient. Vortexa estimates that global crude imports have declined by roughly 10 million bpd, with Asian markets bearing the brunt of the disruption. While shipments from the Atlantic Basin have risen, they are only partially compensating for the lost Middle Eastern volumes.

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Current Atlantic Basin exports to Asia stand at around 7 million bpd, covering just about 30% of the supply previously sourced from the Gulf. The remaining deficit is being met through accelerated inventory drawdowns.

Crude stockpiles are depleting rapidly. Onshore inventories outside China have dropped by 49 million barrels over the past 4 weeks, highlighting the tightening supply conditions and limited buffer in the system.

Meanwhile, floating storage, which was once a key cushion, has already returned to typical seasonal levels, removing another layer of flexibility.

With seaborne reserves no longer providing relief, the pressure has shifted squarely to onshore storage. The continued drawdown underscores the widening imbalance, as replacement supply continues to lag behind the scale of disruption caused by the Hormuz blockade.