Nigeria’s 2026 budget oil projections, which analysts see as unrealistic, could be at risk as oil prices could slip to $50 per barrel, according to a research report.
India’s SBI Research forecasts that Brent, which is the global oil benchmark, as well as WTI and others, could slid to as low as $50 per barrel by June this year.
“Oil prices in general have remained subdued due to the OPEC+ decision to increase production,” SBI Research analysts wrote in a note carried by Fortune India.
SBI Research’s estimate is not far from the base-case projections of major Wall Street investment banks.
Oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels due to a large surplus in the market, with the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026, Goldman Sachs said in November 2025.
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The surplus this year will be 2 million barrels per day (bpd) on average, according to Goldman Sachs, which also noted that 2026 would be the last year of the current big supply wave hitting the market.
The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through, Co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC in November 2025, as reported by oilprice.com.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the Brent price will drop to an average of $55 per barrel in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 and will stay near that price for the rest of the year.
This would be the result of growing global oil production and lower demand over the winter, which are set to quicken the accumulation of oil inventories.
These forecasts were made before the extraction of Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. and the tipping point in the U.S. pressure on Venezuela, the world’s biggest oil reserves holder.
Brent stood at $61.41 per barrel at 4.29pm Nigerian time on Tuesday.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget
In Nigeria’s 2026 budget, crude oil price was pegged at $64.85 per barrel, with daily output estimated at 1.84 million barrels per day. Economy Post had earlier analysed that the oil price and output projections were overly optimistic.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) data show that a total of 454.28 million barrels of crude oil and condensate were produced between January and September 2025. This translated to an average daily production of 1.66 mbpd, which was below the budget assumption of 1.84 mbpd. With oil theft seen continuing and production challenges persisting due to poor investments and old infrastructure, the oil output estimate is seen as ambitious, said an oil and gas analyst, Mr Charles Awurum.
Donald Trump’s capture of Venezuelan President Maduro hasn’t moved oil prices yet, but Trump’s plan to run the economy may see more oil pumped into the global market
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Venezuela sits atop an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, which make up about 17 percent of the global total and more than Saudi Arabia, whose reserves stand at about 267 billion barrels. However, its production hasn’t been impressive. According to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the South American nation produced only 934,000 barrels per day in November, less than 1 percent of global demand and a shadow of the more than 3 million barrels a day it used to pump in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Yet, risks remain, especially if Mr Trump decides to pump more oil in the nation.
“The National Assembly should be emcouraged to reduce the oil projections this year,” said an economist and Chief Executive Officer of Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, told Economy Post.
“Those projections are optimistic and we should peg oil price and output at more realistic ranges. Oil price and production volatility remain risks as fiscal performance is sensitive to oil shocks,” he noted.
