NIGERIA will require an estimated $22 billion to execute its planned gas pipeline expansion projects, according to the Gas Master Plan (GMP) released by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

The document shows that the country currently operates more than 2,500 kilometres of gas pipelines, with further expansion tied to flagship projects such as the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano Pipeline and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben Pipeline. These projects are expected to significantly improve gas transportation and distribution nationwide.

The plan warns that, under all projected scenarios, domestic gas demand is likely to outpace supply by 2030. This looming gap underscores the urgency of incentivising upstream gas development while prioritising demand in sectors with the highest economic returns.

According to the GMP, pipeline infrastructure currently under development could require investments of up to $22 billion, stressing that sustained capital inflows would be critical to avoid supply shortfalls as consumption rises over the next five years.

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NNPCL noted that performance under the Domestic Gas Delivery Obligation (DGDO) improved to 70 percent in 2024, up from 50 percent five years earlier. It added that future domestic demand growth would be largely driven by the power sector, gas-based industries (GBIs), and commercial users.

The company also outlined plans to raise gas commercialisation levels from about 60 percent of total output to 75 percent by 2027 and 80 percent by 2030. By the end of the decade, it projects that around 80 percent of produced gas will be monetised, supported by improved infrastructure, continued upstream investments, and a reduction in reinjection and flaring.

Achieving these targets, NNPCL said, will depend on consistent funding for central processing facility reliability, rehabilitation of existing pipelines, and stronger interconnections between gas hubs.

The outlook contained in the GMP projects a steady rise in supply capacity, with production expected to reach 10 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2027, in line with the presidential mandate. By 2030, output could climb further to 15 Bcf/d as major hubs, including Gbaran-Soku-Obagi-OBOB, Utorogu-Ughelli, Otumara-Forcados-Tunu, and key offshore clusters, are commissioned or ramp up production.

NNPCL highlighted that Nigeria holds about 210 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of proven gas reserves, the largest in Africa and among the top 10 globally. This resource base, it said, positions the country to meet rising domestic demand while strengthening its role in the international gas market.

The roadmap is also designed to reinforce the federal government’s ‘Decade of Gas’ initiative by addressing liquidity constraints within the gas-to-power value chain. By improving supply frameworks for gas-based industries, the company aims to unlock major projects spanning Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Floating LNG (FLNG), Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG).

As part of efforts to improve project bankability, NNPCL plans to convert 3P (possible) reserves into 2P (proved plus probable) reserves, which are considered more reliable for securing international financing, particularly for deepwater developments.

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A central plank of the strategy is the creation of integrated gas hubs to reduce costs and operational risks. Through shared facilities and coordinated development, these hubs are expected to lower capital expenditure requirements and enhance efficiency across multiple projects.

The company’s infrastructure push also targets deliverability gaps by advancing national and cross-border projects such as the Trans-Nigeria Gas Pipeline (TNGP) and the AKK pipeline. By catalysing additional bankable investments, NNPCL aims to strengthen gas evacuation and distribution capacity nationwide.

In addition, NNPCL is promoting a ‘willing buyer–willing seller’ framework for domestic gas pricing, a shift intended to liberalise the market and ensure commercially sustainable transactions. The approach is expected to deepen private sector participation and support long-term growth in Nigeria’s gas economy, while growing the economy of Africa’s most populpus nqtion.