Nigeria’s local petrol output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals climbed sharply in December 2025, rising by roughly 64 percent to an average of 32 million litres per day, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

This is barely 1 month after the exit of the former Chief Executive Officer of the NMDPRA, Mr Ahmed Farouk. Mr Farouk and ex-Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mr Gbenga Komolafe, resigned on December 17, 2025.

President of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, had alleged that the ex-NMDPRA chief was colluding with international traders and oil importers to frustrate local refining through the continued issuance of import licences for petroleum products.

Mr Dangote had further alleged that Mr Ahmed was living beyond his legitimate means as a public servant, claiming that four of his children were attending secondary schools in Switzerland at costs running into several million dollars. He had claimed that figures regarding his refinery’s production were understated by Mr Farouk to boost the business of petrol importers. The NMDPRA is the body responsible for providing data on petrol production and imports.

The numbers

Data from the regulator’s December 2025 fact sheet show that average domestic deliveries of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reached 32.01 million litres per day, a significant jump from about 19.5 million litres per day recorded in November.

The month-on-month increase ranks among the strongest supply gains since the $20 billion Lekki refinery began phased operations, highlighting improving performance as the facility scales up.

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Industry players link the improvement to leadership changes and internal restructuring at the refinery following the exit of Farouk Ahmed as chief executive of the NMDPRA, a period they say brought closer coordination among regulators, refinery operators and downstream off-takers.

According to the fact sheet, Dangote Refinery accounted for about 5.78 million litres per day of domestic PMS supply in December. Overall availability was further supported by higher refinery utilisation and smoother evacuation of products to coastal depots and via truck-outs nationwide.

NMDPRA figures indicate that the refinery reached a peak utilisation rate of around 71 percent during the month, a performance the regulator described as strong. Across all domestic refining assets, average utilisation exceeded 63 percent, signalling gradual stabilisation after months of uneven operations earlier in the year.

Improved local output translated into stronger national supply cover, with petrol sufficiency rising to about 29 days in December. This marked a clear recovery from September and October, when domestic availability dipped below national demand benchmarks.

Nigeria’s official petrol demand benchmark for 2025 stands at 50 million litres per day. However, actual truck-out consumption averaged 63.7 million litres per day in December, underscoring continued pressure from cross-border demand and inventory build-up ahead of the festive season.

The regulator attributed the rebound in PMS availability to higher Dangote output, strategic imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in its role as supplier of last resort, and deliberate efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of year-end demand. It also noted that twelve vessels initially scheduled to discharge in October rolled into November, bolstering supply into December.

Indicative PMS pump prices in November ranged between N910 and N982.50 per litre across major cities, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to exchange rates and global fuel costs despite gains in local refining.

The NMDPRA report shows varied outcomes for other products. Diesel (AGO) output from local refineries remained constrained amid shutdowns at some plants, while modular refineries supplied modest volumes averaging about 0.39 million litres per day. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), however, performed better, with domestic production accounting for more than 70 percent of supply in December.