Dangote Refinery set for $5bn IPO in Africa’s biggest listing push

NIGERIA’S foremost industrialist, Aliko Dangote, is pressing ahead with plans to list the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals in a deal that could raise as much as $5 billion, positioning it as Africa’s largest initial public offering.

The share sale is expected to open as early as May, with analysts valuing the refinery between $40 billion and $50 billion. This places the planned listing among the most significant capital market transactions ever recorded on the continent.

Investors are likely to be offered between 5 percent and 10 percent of the company’s equity, creating room for both local and international participation in Africa’s biggest refining project.

Market participants have described the IPO as a watershed moment that could deepen liquidity and broaden investor engagement across African exchanges.

READ ALSO: Dangote Refinery crude supply doubles, but rising import costs hurt margins

On April 1, the Nigerian Exchange Group and the African Securities Exchanges Association convened senior exchange executives to discuss the framework for the listing.

The meeting explored how the refinery’s IPO could serve as a blueprint for cross-border capital raising and improve investor access across multiple African markets.

To execute the deal, the Dangote Group has appointed a consortium of advisers. Stanbic IBTC Capital will oversee international placements and investor relations, while Vetiva Capital Management will manage retail distribution within Nigeria. FirstCap will coordinate institutional placements, particularly among pension funds.

Situated in the Ibeju Lekki Free Zone, the refinery is recognised as the world’s largest single-train crude processing facility.

Developed at a cost of $20 billion, the plant was commissioned in 2023 and commenced operations in early 2024 after nearly a decade of construction. It currently processes close to 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day and continues to scale up production to meet regional demand.

Operations at the facility are already reshaping fuel supply dynamics across Africa, especially as global supply chains remain strained. The refinery has expanded its export reach, delivering petroleum products to several African markets. Recent updates indicate that multiple petrol cargoes were shipped within a single month, highlighting strong regional demand.

Beyond fuels, the plant produces up to 3 million metric tonnes of urea fertiliser annually, supporting agricultural output across the continent.

Expansion efforts are also underway to boost polypropylene production, a key input in manufacturing sectors such as packaging, textiles and consumer goods, helping to strengthen local value chains and reduce import dependence.

Financial support for the project has remained strong, with the African Export-Import (Afrexim) Bank underwriting $2.5 billion of a $4 billion syndicated loan. Commenting on the development, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, Mr George Elombi, emphasised the role of African-led investments in driving economic resilience, job creation and sustainable growth.

The refinery’s impact is already evident, with more than 150,000 direct and indirect jobs created, alongside extensive technical training for thousands of engineers.

According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the refinery could lift Nigeria’s non-oil GDP by 1.5 percent and boost foreign exchange (FX) earnings by $5.5 billion.

READ ALSO: Dangote refinery faults former NMDPRA leadership over excess petrol imports

As output increases, Nigeria is expected to shift from being a net importer of refined petroleum products to a net exporter. The refinery currently meets between 35 percent and 50 percent of domestic petrol demand, while exports to other African countries continue to grow.

Regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria, are reviewing a proposed structure that would allow investors to buy shares in naira while receiving dividends in US dollars, a model aimed at attracting foreign participation and reducing currency risk.

The company is expected to file its prospectus in April, followed by a nationwide investor roadshow ahead of the offering. Subject to regulatory approval and investor appetite, trading could commence on the Nigerian Exchange’s main board between June and July.

The planned IPO is widely seen as a defining moment for Africa’s capital markets, showcasing the scale of funding that can be mobilised within the continent and reflecting growing collaboration among regional exchanges to deepen integration and capital flows.