Dangote refinery output could drive naira to below N1,000/$ by end of 2026— Otedola

Billionaire investor, Mr Femi Otedola, says Nigeria’s currency could rebound strongly and trade below N1,000 to the dollar before the end of 2026, as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now operates at full capacity and begins to ease pressure on the foreign exchange market.

Otedola, who chairs First HoldCo, linked the outlook for the naira directly to the refinery’s production milestone, noting that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on fuel imports has long drained scarce foreign exchange and weakened the local currency.

In a message posted on X on Thursday, he described the ramp-up of the refinery to its full 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) as a decisive moment for the economy. According to him, the facility’s scale gives it the potential to transform Nigeria’s fuel supply system and reverse years of import dependence.

The refinery is now capable of producing up to 75 million litres of petrol daily, a volume that could significantly reduce the country’s need for imported petrol. Fuel imports have historically been one of Nigeria’s biggest sources of dollar demand, contributing to persistent pressure on the naira.

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“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”

His comments come at a time when the naira has shown signs of modest recovery. On February 12, the currency appreciated to N1,348 per dollar at the official market, supported by improved liquidity conditions and policy adjustments by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery confirmed on Wednesday that it has reached full nameplate capacity following the complete restoration and optimisation of its crude distillation unit and motor spirit production block after scheduled maintenance. The company said the achievement marks a major step toward stabilising fuel availability and boosting Nigeria’s energy security.

Looking beyond the current output level, Mr Otedola revealed that the founder of the refinery, Mr Aliko Dangote, has already commenced work on a new $12 billion expansion project. The upgrade is expected to lift total refining capacity to 1.4 million bpd.

The planned expansion will also introduce petrochemical production lines, including facilities capable of producing 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene each year.

These petrochemical products are essential raw materials for industries such as plastics, packaging, and detergents. Local manufacturing of these inputs is expected to lower Nigeria’s import bill, conserve foreign exchange, and further strengthen the naira over time.

Together, the refinery’s full operation and its planned expansion could reshape Nigeria’s external balance, reduce exposure to fuel import shocks, and provide a long-term boost to the country’s currency stability.