Daily petrol imports plunge 42.2% to 24.8m litres as local supply gains ground

NIGERIA’s dependence on imported petrol eased significantly in January 2026, following a sharp drop in daily inflows of premium motor spirit (PMS). New figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that average petrol imports fell by 42.2 percent to 24.8 million litres per day, compared with 42.8 million litres per day recorded in December 2025. The development highlights a gradual but important shift in the country’s fuel supply structure, driven largely by rising domestic refining output.

The report, which was published over the weekend, indicates that the drop in imports coincided with stronger local production. Supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Nigeria’s largest privately owned refining facility, rose by 25.3 percent in January to 40.1 million litres per day. In the preceding month, the refinery supplied an average of 32 million litres daily. The improved performance of the plant provided a partial buffer against the reduction in foreign-sourced petrol.

Even with this boost from domestic production, overall petrol availability declined. NMDPRA reported that total daily supply in January stood at 64.9 million litres, down by 12.5 per cent from the 74.2 million litres per day recorded in December. It explained that while local supply is expanding, it has not yet grown enough to fully replace the volume previously covered by imports.

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Despite the lower supply figure, the country did not experience immediate shortages. The regulator disclosed that Nigeria maintained 33 days of petrol sufficiency in January. It added that stock cover improved by 13 percent between December and January, largely because of better supply performance from the Dangote plant, which helped stabilise the market.

On consumption, the regulator revealed a notable gap between the official benchmark and actual usage. Although the daily consumption benchmark remains 50 million litres, truck-out data show that real demand averaged 60.2 million litres per day in January. This suggests that fuel usage continues to outpace planned assumptions. Alongside petrol, average daily truck-out volumes were reported at 19.2 million litres for automotive gas oil (diesel), 3.5 million litres for aviation fuel, and 4,860 metric tonnes for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

With regard to refining operations, the Authority said the Dangote Refinery ran at 61.27 percent capacity during the month. By contrast, Nigeria’s three government-owned refineries, which are operated by NNPC Limited, remained shut down throughout January, underscoring the continued reliance on private-sector facilities for domestic processing.

Beyond the Dangote complex, further capacity is expected from modular refiners. The Wintersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited has commenced crude oil test runs on the second phase of its refinery project in Imo State. The company currently operates a 5,000 barrels-per-day (bpd) plant that was commissioned in November 2020 and produces diesel, dual-purpose kerosene, naphtha and heavy fuel oil for the local market.

Phase Two of the project, which has been undergoing pre-commissioning since late 2025, is designed to significantly expand output. Once fully completed, the facility is expected to raise its total capacity to about 50,000 bpd, representing a 10-fold increase from its current level. In its latest update, NMDPRA confirmed that the refinery has now begun introducing crude oil into its processing units, marking the transition from mechanical completion to live operational testing.

READ ALSO: Dangote refinery begins supply 50m litres of petrol daily from today

Industry analysts believe that, if successful, the Wintersmith expansion could further ease pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) market by reducing the need for imported refined products. It is also expected to improve the supply of diesel and other fuels to industrial users, particularly in the South-East and surrounding regions.

Commenting on broader sector trends, NMDPRA Chief Executive, Engr. Saidu Mohammed, said the downstream petroleum industry is experiencing ‘irreversible renaissance.’ According to him, the changes are being driven by bold reforms, new investments and stronger regulatory clarity. He noted that, under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the downstream market is now fully liberalised and increasingly shaped by market fundamentals rather than administrative controls.

Engr Mohammed described the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as a major game changer for Nigeria and linked ongoing economic reforms to a reduction in import-related fiscal losses estimated at over N6 trillion. He assured stakeholders that the regulator would remain fair, firm and decisive in its oversight role, stressing that regulation must enable value creation rather than hinder it, and concluding that confidence remains the true currency of any market.