THE coming year may offer little relief for Nigerians as the Bola Tinubu administration plans to channel nearly half of the country’s revenue into servicing domestic and external debts.
According to the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) seen by Economy Post, the Nigerian government projects total revenue of N34.33 trillion in 2026, out of which N15.91 trillion, which is about 46.34 percent, will go toward debt servicing.
This implies that almost half of the nation’s income in 2026 will be devoted to repaying loans and their interests, leaving little fiscal space for real development and critical investments such as purchase of security equipment, infrastructure development, among other vital areas.
According to Chief Executive Officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, “This level of debt-service commitment significantly limits fiscal space for security and stabilisation programmes, infrastructure investment, and social sector spending.”
“Nigeria’s rising debt trajectory underscores the urgent need for renewed focus on debt sustainability, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, greater efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and accountability in public expenditure,” he added.
READ ALSO: Tinubu debt profile: How much has Nigeria borrowed since 2023?
Debt servicing or loan repayment took 69 percent of Nigerian government’s revenue of N19.354 trillion in 2024, according to the 2024 Budget Implementation Report (BIR) released by the Budget Office of the Federation in September 2025. In 2023, debt servicing to revenue stood at 73.5 percent, said the Debt Management Office (DMO).
Though the 2026 debt-to-revenue figures may seem low, it is relatively high when compared with some of Nigeria’s African peers. Debt servicing in South Africa for 2023/2024 stood at 15 percent as against 38 percent in Egypt, 35.24 percent in Benin, and 26.12 percent in Senegal, according to the debt database of the Development Finance Organization and country-specific revenue institutions.
Nigeria’s debt burden under Tinubu
Economy Post had exclusively reported in April 2025 that Nigeria’s debt under President Bola Tinubu soared to N56.6 trillion in just 23 months in government, reflecting that the nation’s helmsman had taken monumental loans to fix the economy and improve the country’s human development indices.
Mr Tinubu’s debt in 23 months stood at N18.7 trillion or 75.2 percent less than N75.26 trillion loans taken by late former President Muhammadu Buhari in the whole of 8 years, according to Economy Post‘s independent calculations.
Even from official figures, Mr Tinubu’s debt numbers are still very high. His government’s loans constituted 43 percent of Nigeria’s total public debt which was released by the Debt Management Office (DMO) in June 2025. His debt stood at N152.398 trillion as of June 2025.
As of the time former President Mujammadu Buhari left office on May 29, 2023, the nation’s total public debt stood at N87.379 trillion, according to the DMO’s June 2023 data. However, with President Tinubu coming to power that same day, Nigeria’s debt profile rose thereafter, hitting N152.398 trillion as of June 2025.
This means that President Tinubu’s administration racked up N65.019 trillion between June 2023 and June 2025, marking 43 percent of the current public debt stock.
READ ALSO : In 28 months, Tinubu out-borrows Buhari’s 8 years as Nigeria’s debt piles
However, the figure does not include the recent debts taken by President Tinubu. In early September, Economy Post reported that the World Bank could approve loans totalling $1.75 billion for Nigeria before the end of the year to support the nation’s agricultural value chain, digital infrastructure, health security and small businesses. There are also other smaller loans which have been announced or approved but are yet to be received by the Nigerian government.
World Bank loans
Mr Tinubu’s administration has begun negotiation for the World Bank’s $500 million loan targeted at supporting Nigeria’s micro-, small- and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs).
According to information available to Economy Post from the World Bank’s projects for Nigeria in 2025, Nigeria is currently in talks with the global lender to obtain the facility entitled,’Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria (FINCLUDE) Project.’
If the negotiation is succeessful, the global lender will approve this facility on December 18, 2025, according to details of the loan seen by Economy Post.
So far, Tinubu’s administration has borrowed $3.754 billion from the World Bank alone in 2025, signifying the government’s rising growing appetite for foreign loans. Some of the loans, like FINCLUDE, will be approved by the global lender in December 2025.
According to Economy Post‘s analysis from the World Bank’s projects or loans in Nigeria, the global lender has had 11 big projects for Nigeria this year, covering issues from sustainable agriculture and MSMEs to digital infrastructure and nutrition improvement.
The Nigerian government is in advanced talks with China’s Export-Import Bank for a $2 billion loan to construct a new electricity super grid to address Nigeria’s long-standing power supply challenges.
READ ALSO: Tinubu’s govt borrows $3.75bn from World Bank in 2025 as foreign loan appetite peaks
According to Minister of Power, Mr Adebayo Adelabu, “It’s part of plans to decentralise power generation in Nigeria and get the heavy commercial users that left the power grid because of its unreliability to return.”
Not all gloom, doom
It is not all doom and gloom as the nation’s revenue is seeing some level of appreciation under the Tinubu’s government. The non-oil sector pushed the nation’s tax revenue to N17.4 trillion in the first seven months of 2025.
Non-oil tax revenue was estimated at N13.07 trillion, representing 75 percent of the total revenue reported within the period. Hence, Nigeria collected more taxes in the 7 months of 2025 than it did in 2022 and 2021 combined – when tax earnings stood at N16.5 trillion.
“Now is the time to reduce external borrowing and pay more attention to exceeding our revenue targets,” said a Lagos-based economist, Mr Michael Ajibola-Whyte.
“Borrowing isn’t bad, but a responsible man will always ensure that his income exceeds his debt. This is exactly what we need,” he noted.
