Oil tops $100 amid conflicting signals on US-Iran talks

OIL prices surged past the $100 mark once again, reflecting uncertainty over the trajectory of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Brent crude climbed amid mixed signals surrounding possible diplomatic engagement, even as tensions on the ground remain unresolved. Brent closed at $104.5 per barrel at 11.24pm Nigerian time, with WTI $88.50.

At a swearing-in ceremony for Markwayne Mullin as homeland security secretary, US President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could end swiftly. He claimed Iran had been “totally defeated” and indicated that discussions were ongoing with Iranian officials who were “talking sense,” according to BBC.

However, authorities in Iran have consistently denied any communication with United States, dismissing such claims as attempts to influence global energy and financial markets.

Energy markets worldwide have remained volatile since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, triggering a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions.

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The move ignited a global energy shock, pushing oil and gas prices higher after Iran retaliated by effectively restricting access through the Strait of Hormuz.

This critical passage typically handles roughly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows each day, making it central to global energy supply.

Concerns over further escalation drove Brent crude to as high as $113 per barrel over the weekend. Prices briefly eased on Monday after Trump announced a five-day delay in planned strikes on Iranian energy facilities, citing what he described as constructive dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

But by Tuesday, renewed skepticism over the existence and progress of such talks pushed oil prices back above $103 per barrel. Equity markets reflected the uncertainty, with mixed performances across regions amid reports that the US could deploy additional troops to the Middle East.

In Iran, the Public Relations Office of the Atomic Energy Organisation reported that the Bushehr nuclear power plant had come under attack, according to local media.

In the US, major indices declined, with the S&P 500 closing down nearly 0.4 percent. European markets showed a mixed trend. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.72 percent, while Germany’s DAX edged lower. France’s CAC 40 ended the day 0.23 percent higher.

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Asian markets, heavily exposed to energy supply disruptions, recorded gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.4 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s KOSPI each advanced more than 2.7 percent.

As the conflict entered its fourth week, businesses in the United Kingdom reported the sharpest increase in input costs since 1992, according to the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index.

Governments around the world have taken steps to cushion the impact of rising energy costs and supply disruptions. The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian energy exports, originally imposed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and has also eased restrictions on Iranian oil shipments already at sea.

Meanwhile, China scaled back planned fuel price increases in an effort to reduce pressure on consumers as energy costs continue to climb. However, Nigeria under Bola Tinubu is yet to provide relief for Nigerians.