PRESIDENT Bola Tinubu came to power in May 2023 with a raft of reforms, including the removal of the costly gasoline subsidy and the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market. However, these reforms have favoured powerful businessmen and investors but left the poor behind.
Petrol subsidy removal has freed resources for the government and stopped fuel cabals from stealing public funds. However, it has raised the price of petrol more than four times in just two years. From N200 per litre in mid-May 2023 to N865 -N885 per litre on July 11, 2025, the poor and the middle-class are spending more money now on transportation and petrol for generators as the rising cost of living squeezes their disposable incomes.
Data show that petrol subsidy removal has enriched players in the downstream sector. Four Nigerian downstream firms listed on the Nigerian Exchange Group reported 94 percent growth in their cumulative revenues during the nine months of 2024.
Total Energies, Conoil Plc, MRS Oil and Eterna Plc had their cumulative sales jump to N15.25 trillion in the nine months of 2024 from N784.7 billion in the same period of 2023, according to BusinessDay.
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TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria reported the highest profit generated by any oil marketer during the nine-month period, with a N27.4 billion net gain, representing a 153 percent year-on-year growth from N10.8 billion net profit recorded in the nine months of 2023. The firm’s revenue jumped 88 percent to N793.9 billion in 9 months of 2024 from N422.6 billion in the same period of 2023 .
Similarly, Conoil reported a net profit of N11.3 billion in the same period of 2024, representing a 30 percent year-on-year growth from the N8.7 billion net profit posted in the corresponding period of 2023. Its revenue of N249.1 billion was 81 percent higher than the N137.9 billion revenue recorded in the corresponding period of 2023. Conoil is majorly owned by Nigeria’s second richest man with an estimated net worth of $6.8 billion, Mr Mike Adenuga.
MRS Oil’s revenue stood at N248.7 billion revenue during the nine-month period, representing a 147 percent year-on-year growth from N100.9 billion revenue posted in the corresponding period of 2023. Its net profit was N6.2 billion, indicating an 81 percent year-on-year growth from the N3.4 billion net profit posted in the same period of 2023. Its revenue jumoed 211 percent to N246.53 billion in Q1 of 2025. However, its profit fell 12 percent to N1.751 billion. MRS Oil Nigeria Plc is operated by MRS Holdings, which is owned by Mr Sayyu Idris Dantata, a billionaire.
Also, Eterna Plc had its profit rise to N233.8 billion in the first 9 months of 2024, representing a 90 percent year-on-year increase from the N123.3 billion revenue reported in the corresponding period in 2023. Its net profit was N338 million, representing a 108 percent year-on-year growth from the N4.5 billion net loss posted in the same period of 2023. Eterna Oil is operated by Rain Oil, owned by billionaire Gabriel Ogbechie. Eterna Oil’s revenue stood at N73.272 billion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, representing 8 percent increase over Q1 of 2024. It made a profit of N1.432 billion in Q1 of 2025 as against N3.3 billion loss in the same period of 2024.
Conoil and TotalEnergies’ revenues fell in Q1 of 2025 but analysts say they will recover by the time the full-year results are out.
Foreign exchange hiatus
Similarly, while investors now enjoy stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market, buying stocks and exploiting opportunities in the economy, the poor suffer. Investors gained N13.2 trillion between January and June 2025, ThisDay reported.
As a result of naira stability fuelled by the FX reforms, foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows totalling $3.48 billion came into the Nigerian in the first six months of 2024. People who invest in the Nigerian stocks, bonds, treasury bills, mutual funds and other securities have reaped trillions of naira due to naira stability, but the poor who cannot afford these assets have been left behind.
The exchange rate has changed from N463.85/$ on May 25, 2023 (official rate) to N1,530/$ on July 11, 2025.
Where are the poor in all of these?
For an economy like Nigeria, a lot of goods used by citizens are imported in dollars. As a result, prices of goods from shirts to shoes have risen by 100 percent to 200 percent in two years. The ripple effects are also felt on food products, with packaged foods rising by over 100 percent in one year.
Inflation rate stood at 22.79 percent in June 2023 as against 34.80 percent in December 2024. It stood at 22.97 percent in May 2025, but that’s because the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) changed the goalpost in the middle of the game by rebasing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the basis upon which inflation is computed.
So far, President Bola Tinubu has not unveiled packages to soften the hardship for the poor. Poverty rate in Nigeria is estimated at 40.1 percent, while the multidimensional poverty rate stamds at 63 percent.
“If you ask whether the reforms are yielding the right results, the honest answer is both yes and no. It really depends on who you are speaking to. For the investor and the business community, there are signs of progress. But for the general population, the overwhelming response is still no,” said Senior Partner at KPMG Nigeria, Mr Tola Adeyemi, at BusinessDay CEO Forum on Thursday in Lagos.
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According to an economist, Mr Ade Aina, it was high time President Tinubu began to ” provide support for the poor.” He said money should be released to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) at single-digit or no rates at all, saying “this should happen fast to enable the economy to recover.”
“We can’t continue to build an economy for the rich, which is what we have seen in Nigeria in two years no,” he added.
The World Bank recently urged President Tinubu to begin and expand its conditional cash transfer programme to mitigate the effects of rising poverty and economic hardship in the nation.
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