Economists echo World Bank warning on poverty despite Tinubu’s govt denial

ECONOMISTS have echoed the World Bank’s warning on Nigeria’s rising poverty despite pushback by the government of President Bola Tinubu.

The World Bank said in its ‘Nigeria Development Update’ released on Wednesday that though growth had picked up and revenues and reserves rising, poverty was skyrocketing in Africa’s most populous nation.

“In 2025 we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty. So the challenge is clear, how to translate the gains from the stabilisation reforms into better living standards for all,” said World Bank’s Country Director, Mr Mathew Verghis.

Mr Verhis noted that food inflation was having dire effects on Nigerians, particularly the poor, and had the potential to undermine political support for the reforms. He therefore urged the Bola Tinubu government to “use public resources more effectively, ensuring that spending drives real development results that benefit people and expanding the safety net so that the poorest and vulnerable get support.”

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He further said that the Nigerian government had taken bold steps to stabilise the economy and the efforts were beginning to yield results. However, according to him, “macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians—especially the poor and vulnerable.”

2022 poverty report

In 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that 133 million people (63 percent) were multidimensionally poor. The report noted that 65 percent of the poor (86 million people) lived in the North, while 35 percent (nearly 47 million) lived in the South. Poverty levels across states varied significantly, with the incidence of multidimensional poverty ranging from a low of 27 percent in Ondo to a high of 91 percent in Sokoto.

“Over half of the population of Nigeria are multidimensionally poor and cook with dung, wood or charcoal, rather than cleaner energy. High deprivations are also apparent nationally in sanitation, time to healthcare, food insecurity, and housing,” the report noted.

“In general, the incidence of monetary poverty is lower than the incidence of multidimensional poverty across most states. In Nigeria, 40.1% of people are poor according to the 2018/19 national monetary poverty line, and 63% are multidimensionally poor according to the National MPI 2022.”

President Tinubu began economic reforms two years ago, removing the costly petrol subsidies and liberalising the foreign exchange (FX) market. He has also introduced tax reforms while introducing several monetary policies to rein in inflation and stabilise the naira. However, the policies have stoked inflation and thrown millions of more Nigerians into poverty.

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The World Bank acknowledges that the reforms have been solid, but urged the Tinubu-led government to devise policies to rein in poverty.

Nigerian govt denial

But the government of the day disagrees. Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Mr Sunday Dare, rejected the World Bank report on Thursday, stating that its poverty figure must be properly contextualised.

“The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day—a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate—well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities,” he said.

He cited the Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), which is expanded to reach up to 15 million households nationwide, noting that over N297 billion had been disbursed since 2023 to poor and vulnerable families.

“The government has also strengthened other components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to protect jobs, encourage small enterprise, and keep children in school,” Dare further said.

Economists echo World Bank report

Nevertheless, economists have backed the World Bank, stating that the Tinubu administration is yet to unveil a comprehensive policy to tackle poverty and hunger.

“The Tinubu’s policies have been sound, but they have deepened poverty,” said an international economist, Dr Lilian Duke-Whyte. “The Nigerian government’s cash transfer programme covers only 15 million Nigerians. Last month, 8.5 million vulnerable Nigerians received money, but that is just a drop in the ocean,” she noted. “It won’t move the needle.”

Another Harvard-trained economist, Mr Nonso Mbah, commended the administration’s aggressive reforms but noted that the policies weren’t yet popular with the people.

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“The policies are good to us as a nation, but what is the essence of a policy if it does not improve lives? The agression we have seen in the implementation of these policies cannot be equated with what we have seen on the side of providing succour to the people. What do you tell a man whose monthly salary can’t feed his family for two weeks? This is where the problem lies,” he noted.

A university teacher of economics in a South-West University, Dr Oluwadare Olumuyiwa, said: “No matter how good President Tinubu’s policies are on paper, if they do not improve people’s living standards, then they have failed.”

He said though the reforms were urgently needed, considering the rot inherited from the immediate past government of Muhammadu Buhari, “they do not yet have a human face.”