CPPE: Rising petrol imports threaten Nigeria’s refining drive

THE Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has raised concerns over the sharp increase in petrol imports, warning that continued approvals without clear evidence of domestic supply shortages could undermine Nigeria’s emerging refining industry.

The CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, in a policy brief issued on Sunday, said petrol imports had risen sharply despite growing domestic refining capacity.

According to the report, average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports increased from 5.9 million litres per day in May 2026 to 18.1 million litres per day in June, representing a 206.8 percent jump.

The figure climbed further to 19.7 million litres per day in July, when imports accounted for 43.3 percent of total PMS receipts, up from 12.4 percent in May.

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Yusuf said the development required urgent regulatory attention, particularly as domestic refining capacity had expanded significantly.

He argued that petroleum-product imports should be used to bridge genuine supply gaps rather than compete with sufficient domestic production.

“Petroleum-product imports should function as a transparent supply-gap instrument—not as a parallel market that displaces adequate domestic production,” CPPE said.

The organisation maintained that imports remained necessary in situations such as refinery outages, seasonal demand increases, product-quality gaps and strategic stock replenishment.

However, it said import licences should only be approved after the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) had established that domestic refiners could not meet the required demand.

CPPE said the regulator should disclose projected demand, verified domestic production, inventories, committed refinery deliveries and logistics constraints before approving substantial import volumes.

It said this would determine the actual residual volume that needed to be imported and prevent unnecessary competition against local refiners.

Yusuf also warned that frequent or unexplained changes in import policy could weaken investor confidence and make refinery investments less attractive.

The group noted that domestic refining could help conserve foreign exchange by reducing expenditure on imported petroleum products, freight and insurance.

It added that a vibrant refining industry would support jobs and businesses across engineering, maintenance, transportation, storage, maritime services and other sectors.

CPPE further warned that excessive reliance on imports could weaken Nigeria’s industrialisation drive because refining provides feedstock for petrochemicals, plastics, fertiliser, pharmaceuticals, paints and packaging.

To address the issue, the organisation proposed a “domestic supply first, competition always, imports only for verified gaps” framework.

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It called on NMDPRA to publish monthly data on refinery output, domestic evacuation, inventories, consumption, exports, imports and stock levels.

It also urged the regulator to give qualified domestic refiners a time-bound opportunity to supply identified shortages before approving imports for any remaining gap.

CPPE recommended that import permits be tied to specific volumes and shipment windows, with speculative or unused permits cancelled.

The organisation also called for emergency-import triggers based on clearly defined thresholds, including minimum stock levels, prolonged refinery outages and delivery failures.

Yusuf stressed that any policy aimed at reducing petroleum-product imports must also guarantee crude supply to local refineries.

“Product-import restraint without feedstock security would be internally inconsistent,” the report stated.

CPPE said Nigeria had reached a point where petroleum policy should move away from managing import dependence towards building a competitive domestic refining ecosystem.

It warned that failure to align import approvals with verified supply gaps could undermine foreign-exchange conservation, employment, investment and Nigeria’s energy security.