FOR many months, economists and financial analysts waited for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures that would show the true state of the Nigerian economy. However, the numbers seen by Economy Post on Monday, July 21, were simply disappointing, which could explain why the NBS isn’t telling Nigerians the whole truth.

In 2014 when the last GDP rebasing was done, Nigeria emerged as Africa’s biggest economy from the exercise, with the economy doubling to over $500 billion. In 2024 rebasing, however, Nigeria’s GDP stood at a little over $255 billion (depending on the exchange rate used). This shows that in 11 years, Nigerian economy has declined almost by half due to naira depreciation over the years. The NBS isn’t telling Nigerians this truth.

To hide this, the NBS decided to compute the numbers using the naira. According to the agency, the rebased nominal GDP at market prices stood at N205.09 trillion in 2019, N213.64 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.

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But these numbers do not tell the whole truth. The NBS succeeded in making it look like the Nigerian economy expanded between 2019 and 2024, but that is not the whole truth. In naira terms, the GDP (same as the economy) rose from N205.09 trillion in 2019 to N372.82 trillion in 2024, representing 82 percent increase over the five-year period.

Source: NBS/ Economy Post

But this is different in reality, especially in dollar terms. The GDP is globally calculated using the dollar terms to give room for global comparisons and objective reflections of the economy.

In breaking down the figures, Economy Post used the average exchange rate for each year to show the differentials between naira and dollar rates each year. The average naira-to-dollar exchange rate in Nigeria in 2019 was 325, according to Statista. With N205.09 trillion economy in 2019, the dollar equivalent of the Nigerian economy was $631.046 billion. In 2020, the exchange rate stood at N359.2/$, putting the size of the Nigerian economy at $594.76 billion. In 2021, the Nigerian economy stood at $609.927 billion, using the prevailing average exchange rate of N398.9/$.

Applying the same methodology, the Nigerian economy stood at $646.92 billion in 2022, and $491.65 billion in 2023. In 2024, the Nigerian GDP’s size was N372.82 trillion. With the average exchange rate of N1,480/$ that year, the GDP of the nation was $251.351 billion.

Adeniran Adeyemi, CEO, NBS

In other words, the Nigerian economy fell from the peak $631.046 billion in 2019 to $251.351 billion in 2024, representing 2.51 times decline over the 5-year period. Hence, the NBS did not provide this clearer picture to the Nigerian public, thus giving the erroneous impression that the nation’s economy expanded over the period.

The implication of the numbers is that Nigeria is still the fourth largest economy in Africa, behind nations such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. Nothing has changed.

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More so, the NBS did not add protitution and illegal activities in the GDP numbers as earlier promised. On January 10, 2025, NBS’ Head of National Accounts, Dr.  Baba Madu, said: “Illegal activities will be in line with the national best practices, that is System of National Accounts (SNA)  2008.

“If you are into, for instance, drugs, there are some countries, it is  this drug  that is driving their economy. It is illegal here because there is no legal backing. Also prostitution, they also earn income. Some even live bigger than those in the formal sector. The SNA does not say no to these, it is we. But the challenge is the legal backing  and how do we get the data.”

However, the NBS did not include illlegal activities and did not provide an explanation as to why this was not added.  

Revelations

However, there are revelations in the NBS’s GDP report. First, COVID-19 had a negative impact on the Nigerian economy. According to the NBS, real GDP growth stood at -6.96 percent in 2020 during the pandemic. However, the situation began changing in 2021 when GDP growth stood at 0.95 percent, In 2022, 4.32 percent, 3.04 percent in 2023 and 3.38 percent in 2024.

Second, Nigerians now know what is driving their economy. Rather than use agriculture in broad terms, the NBS disagregated it to various subsectors such as crop production, fishing, forestry, among others. Incidentally, crop production emerged as the biggest contributor to the Nigerian economy, returning 17.58 percent to the GDP.

It is followed by trade, which makes 17.42 percent contribution to the economy. Real Estate is now in the third position, with a contribution of 10.78 percent, overtaking crude oil which was earlier third. Crude oil now contributes 5.85 percent to the economy and is the fourth largest. Generally, services led the economy in broad sector classification, contributing 53.09 percent, followed by agriculture, which is returning 25.83 percent to the GDP.