Nigeria’s grazing land, food systems in danger as climate change impact spreads

CLIMATE change is poised to dramatically reshape global livestock production, with new research warning that vast areas currently suitable for grazing cattle, sheep and goats may become unviable before the end of the century.

A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) finds that between 36 percent and 50 percent of today’s grazing lands could lose their climatic suitability by 2100, depending on how fast the world reduces greenhouse gas emissions. For Nigeria and much of Africa, where millions depend on pastoralism and mixed farming, this shift could deepen food insecurity, poverty, and social instability.

The research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), focuses on grassland-based grazing systems, which cover nearly one-third of the Earth’s surface and form the backbone of the world’s largest agricultural production system. These systems currently support more than 100 million pastoralists and around 1.6 billion grazing animals. According to the study, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increasing climate extremes will force a major contraction of the ‘safe climatic space’ where livestock can survive and thrive.

Using historical climate data, the researchers identified the narrow environmental ranges within which grazing systems perform best. Livestock thrive where temperatures range between −3°C and 29°C, annual rainfall lies between 50 and 2,627 millimeters, relative humidity falls between 39 percent and 67 percent, and wind speeds stay between 1 meter and 6 meters per second. However, climate change is pushing many regions beyond these thresholds.

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“Climate change will shift and significantly contract these spaces globally, leaving fewer spaces for animals to graze,” said lead author Chaohui Li, a former PIK researcher now at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. “Importantly, many of these changes will be felt in countries that already experience hunger, economic and political instability, and higher levels of gender inequity.”

Africa is identified as one of the global hotspots for livestock vulnerability. Under a low-emissions scenario, suitable grassland on the continent could shrink by 16 percent. If fossil fuel use continues largely unchecked, losses could reach as high as 65 percent. The continent is already close to the upper temperature limit for safe grazing, meaning even small increases in heat can trigger large productivity declines.

As global temperatures rise, the climatic zones that currently support key African grazing regions – including the Ethiopian highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin and the Congo Basin – are expected to shift southward. Because Africa ends at the Southern Ocean, these zones will eventually move beyond the continent’s landmass altogether, leaving large areas without a viable replacement.

For Nigeria, where agriculture employs over one-third of the population and livestock contributes significantly to rural incomes and food supply, the implications are severe. Pastoral systems in the north, which is already strained by desertification, heatwaves, and shrinking water sources, will face even greater stress. Longer dry seasons, more intense droughts, and unpredictable rainfall are reducing pasture quality and increasing competition for land and water.

These climate pressures are already fueling conflict between herders and farmers in central and northern Nigeria, as grazing routes shrink and crop lands expand. With fewer safe grazing zones available in the future, such tensions are likely to intensify unless new adaptation strategies and land-use policies are implemented.

“Grassland-based grazing is highly dependent on the environment,” said a co-author of the study, Mr Maximilian Kotz, “What we see is that climate change is going to reduce the spaces in which grazing can thrive, fundamentally challenging farming practices that have existed for centuries.”

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Nigeria’s wider agricultural sector is also under threat. Rising temperatures are lowering crop yields, while floods in the South and droughts in the North are destroying farmlands and displacing rural communities. Staple crops such as maize, rice, sorghum and millet are becoming more vulnerable, and food prices are rising as production struggles to keep pace with population growth.

The study warns that traditional coping mechanisms, such as migrating herds, switching livestock species, or expanding grazing areas, may no longer be effective. “The changes are just too big for that,” said another co-author, Mr Prajal Pradhan, Climate zones are shifting faster than communities can adapt, and in many regions, there is simply nowhere left to move.

The authors argue that the most effective response is rapid global emissions reduction. Moving away from fossil fuels, protecting grasslands, restoring degraded land, and investing in climate-resilient agriculture will be crucial to safeguarding food systems.

“Reducing emissions is the best strategy we have to minimise these potentially existential damages for livestock farming,” Li concluded.

For Nigeria, the findings underscore an urgent need for climate-smart agriculture, better water management, rangeland restoration, and conflict-sensitive land policies. Without swift action, climate change could undermine one of the country’s most important sources of food and livelihoods, pushing millions further into poverty and food insecurity.