NIGERIA’s external reserves are expected to climb to $51.04 billion in 2026 on the back of easing foreign exchange (FX) pressures, firmer oil receipts and resilient inflows from remittances and foreign investments, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The projection, contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria released on Tuesday, compares with an estimated reserve level of $45.01 billion in 2025.

The apex bank said the anticipated improvement would be driven largely by reduced strain in the FX market, supported by higher oil earnings, sovereign bond issuances and steady diaspora remittance inflows. It added that the ongoing expansion of the Dangote Refinery’s nameplate capacity- from 650,000 barrels per day in 2025 to 700,000 barrels per day, and ultimately 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium term – would further strengthen reserve accretion by reducing fuel import dependence.

The CBN noted that recent reforms in the FX market could deepen transparency and efficiency, narrow the gap between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau de Change (BDC) rates, while supporting exchange rate stability. Improved domestic refining capacity is also projected to significantly cut FX demand for petroleum imports, further easing pressure on reserves.

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Overall, Nigeria’s external balance is forecast to remain positive in 2026, buoyed by steady remittances and stronger export earnings. The bank said crude oil and gas production would rise as better security and infrastructure upgrades supported output growth, while improving economic conditions among key trading partners should also lift demand for Nigerian exports and attract more foreign investment.

The current account surplus is projected at $18.81 billion in 2026, representing 11.16 percent of GDP, compared with $16.94 billion or 10.94 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025. This outlook is anchored on higher export receipts and sustained inflows from Nigerians in the diaspora.

Export earnings are projected to increase to $58.26 billion in 2026 from $54.59 billion in 2025, reflecting gains in both oil and non-oil sectors. Oil revenues would to benefit from rising crude output and enhanced security around oil facilities, while the commencement of petroleum product exports from 2025 could further boost receipts.

Non-oil exports are also expected to strengthen, driven by continued growth in agricultural commodities and fertilizer exports. The CBN highlighted the role of the newly launched National Export Trading Company in addressing value chain gaps, alongside the National Intellectual Property Policy designed to support creative industry exports.

Imports, however, are also projected to rise from $39.92 billion in 2025 to $43.27 billion in 2026, as economic activity picks up and demand for intermediate and capital goods grows.

The services account deficit is expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026 from $12.80 billion in 2025, reflecting higher payments for business and transport services, including research and development and increased freight charges tied to rising merchandise imports.

The primary income account is projected to remain in deficit at $8.62 billion as higher investment income payments accrue to non-resident investors amid relatively attractive domestic yields.

By contrast, the secondary income account surplus is forecast to expand to $26.13 billion in 2026 from $23.82 billion in 2025, supported by stronger remittance inflows through formal channels and higher general transfers, including those linked to election-related activities.

Despite stronger inflows, the financial account is expected to remain in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion in 2026, reflecting increased portfolio inflows and fresh external borrowings by the government, the CBN added.

CBN building Nigeria’s reserves

In November, the CBN Governor, Mr Olayemi Cardoso, said the reserves had hit $46.7bn as of November 14, 2025.

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Represented by the Deputy Governor in charge of Economic Policy, Dr Muhammad Abdullahi, Mr Cardoso said at the 20th Anniversary of the Monetary Policy Department that the reserves had hit new high level, the first since 2018.

“Foreign reserves have risen to $46.7bn as of November 14, 2025, providing 10.3 months of import cover in goods and services, supported by sustained inflows and renewed investor participation across various asset classes.

“This accretion reflects investor confidence in our policies leading to improved oil receipts, stronger balance of payments, and renewed foreign portfolio inflows,” Mr Cardoso said.

During an engagement with the Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions on December 4, Mr Cardoso had reiterated the surge in reserves, noting that the position provided 10.3 months of import cover, an achievement he attributed to renewed investor confidence and improved foreign exchange stability.

He revealed a sharp rise in diaspora inflows and stressed that remittances had increased by 66.7 percent, up from roughly $200 million monthly to about $600 million in recent months.