NIGERIA’s investment ecosystem is entering a new phase. After more than a decade of heavy reliance on foreign private equity and offshore long-term capital, the tide is turning. International investors are retreating, but the vacuum is not being left empty. Domestic capital, which was once on the sidelines, is now emerging as the primary driver of deal-making across the country.

This shift is being fuelled by a mix of global and local pressures. Currency devaluation has battered dollar returns, macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, and global investors are reassessing risk in emerging markets. For many foreign limited partners (LPs), Nigeria has simply become a difficult proposition.

At the PwC–BusinessDay Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook, Managing Director of Verod Capital, Mr Danladi Verheijen, described how foreign capital had thinned dramatically.

“What we’re seeing globally is that commercial investors have largely disappeared,” he said. “The capital is no longer incremental.”

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According to him, foreign limited partners (LPs) were not just cautious, noting that they were under strain. Many are holding portfolios weakened by currency losses, while others have little deployable cash left.

“None of us would accept that in our private portfolios, but that’s the reality because of devaluation.”

With emerging markets like India, Vietnam and Pakistan offering growth with fewer currency risks, international investors are reallocating their funds. Africa, Verheijen noted, is currently perceived as costly and risky. “They just want their capital back,” he said.

Yet Nigeria’s story changes when viewed from inside the country. While foreign investors measure returns in dollars, local managers operate in naira. In that context, performance has been stronger than many expected.

“In naira terms, fund managers have done quite well,” Mr Verheijen said, adding that several portfolios had outperformed domestic securities.

As offshore LPs step back, local investors are learning to occupy space once controlled by global funds. Regulatory pressure, tighter liquidity and necessity are forcing domestic capital to mature quickly.

However, this new phase is marked by caution. Private equity firms are no longer making broad macro bets. Instead, they are narrowing their focus to individual businesses that can survive prolonged economic stress.

“We’re not investing in an index. We’re not investing in the country,” Verheijen said. “The macro affects everything.”

The new strategy centres on resilience. Investors are targeting non-discretionary and counter-cyclical sectors, which are industries where demand remains steady even during downturns. Preference is also being given to companies that can raise prices during currency shocks or benefit from natural foreign exchange inflows.

“The bar is a lot higher now. As an industry, we have to get back to real returns.”

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Rather than relying on financial engineering, firms are now prioritising execution. Since private equity investors do not run portfolio companies day-to-day, leadership quality has become decisive.

“It’s even more important to invest in the right operators,” he said. For Mr Verheijen, the principle is simple: It’s better to invest in an A team in a B business than a B team in an A business.

“There are opportunities in upstream, commodities, critical minerals and real estate. But we don’t invest in what we can’t properly evaluate,” he noted.

Energy sector reflects the same shift

The same transition from foreign to local ownership is unfolding in Nigeria’s energy sector.

Managing Director of Renaissance Africa Energy Consortium and a fellow panelist at the event, Mr Tony Attah, said Nigerian companies were increasingly taking over assets previously held by international oil companies.

He contrasted Renaissance’s approach with the traditional extractive model. “Shell was purely extractive. However, Renaissance has a vision of providing more value for Nigerians.”

That vision, he explained, was rooted in integration, local development and long-term energy security. For Africa, the priority must first be access to reliable energy before conversations about energy transition can truly take hold.

“We need to focus on energy security for Africa,” Attah said.

Local investors show strength

Local investors are taking over as international oil companies (IOCSs) divest mature onshore and shallow water assets in Nigeria. In August 2024, Oando Plc announced the successful completion of the acquisition of 100 percent of the shareholding interest in the Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) from the Italian energy company, Eni, for a total consideration of $783 million comprised of consideration for the asset and reimbursement.

This acquisition is a milestone in Oando’s long-term strategy to expand its upstream operations and strengthen its position in the Nigerian oil and gas sector, the oil firm said.

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• The Transaction raised Oando’s current participating interests in OMLs 60, 61, 62, and 63 from 20 percent to 40 percent. It increases Oando’s ownership stake in all NEPL/NAOC/OOL Joint Venture assets and infrastructure, which include 40 discovered oil and gas fields, of which 24 are currently producing, approximately 40 identified prospects and leads, 12 production stations, approximately 1,490 km of pipelines, 3 gas processing plants, the Brass River Oil Terminal, the Kwale-Okpai phases 1 & 2 power plants (with a total nameplate capacity of 960MW), and associated infrastructure.
• Seplat Energy Plc, in December 2024, confirmed the completion of its acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) from ExxonMobil, in a deal that was first made public in 2022.

On March 13, 2025, Renaissance Africa Energy Holdings announced the successful completion of its landmark acquisition of Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) for $2.4 billion.

On January 14, 2026, TotalEnergies announced that its subsidiary TotalEnergies EP Nigeria had signed a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Vaaris for the sale of a 10 percent non-operated interest in the Renaissance JV licenses in Nigeria.

“Nigerian independents are stepping into these assets instead of international independents, which is what is obtainable in other climes,” Mr Attah added.