The 2026 could be a turnaround year for the Nigerian economy and the naira in more than a decade, according to an economist, Mr Bismarck Rewane.
My Rewane, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives, said a combination of easing inflation, rising investment, major corporate listings and stabilising monetary conditions could propel Africa’s most populous nation into a new and more durable cycle of growth.
During a presentation at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 in Lagos on Thursday, Rewane predicted that 2026 could be a defining year in which structural reforms, private-sector expansion and improved policy coordination might converge to reposition Nigeria for a real economic turnaround.
He noted that after years of unstable inflation, exchange-rate distortions and low investment, Nigeria might be finally approaching an economic turnaround where fundamentals and reform momentum could reinforce each other rather than work in conflict.
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He predicted an expanding capital market, noting that the Nigerian Exchange’s total market capitalisation could jump to N262 trillion in 2026, up sharply from the current N90 trillion, representing a 191 percent increase.
According to him, the market would represent 72 percent of Nigeria’s projected gross domestic product (GDP), placing it among the fastest-expanding markets in the emerging-economies universe.
He forsees listings of mega corporates, including the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), alongside accelerations of profitability across sectors such as telecoms, cement, consumer goods and banking.
According to him, investor sentiment was already shifting due to improving foreign exchange stability, sustained disinflation and stronger earnings guidance from top-tier companies.
He noted that Nigeria’s equity market was entering a new cycle powered by corporate expansion, regulatory reforms and the return of long-delayed market-moving listings, noting that slowing inflation in 2026 could be one of the most important pivot points for Nigeria’s recovery.
He predicted that food and core inflation could fall to around 20 percent, fuelled by a firm disinflationary stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), improvements in domestic refining capacity that could reduce volatility in fuel prices, stronger manufacturing output, rising productivity, and reforms aimed at lowering logistics and supply-chain costs.
With inflation easing, he noted an improvement in household purchasing power, which could, in turn, boost demand across retail, services and industrial sectors.
On monetary policy, Rewane said that 2026 could mark the beginning of cautious interest-rate cuts by the CBN after nearly two years of aggressive tightening, warning that the apex bank must move slowly and conditionally.
He contended that the CBN must first be convinced of sustained disinflation, improved liquidity control through robust Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and liquidity-ratio management, more efficient FX market operations, strengthened reserves, and credible fiscal consolidation with reduced deficit financing. In his view, monetary authorities could be navigating a delicate balance.
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He stressed that the CBN must be careful as cutting too soon could reignite inflationary pressures and doing so too late risked suppressing the investment momentum that Nigeria urgently needed.
Rewane predicted a more stable and stronger naira in 2026, projecting that the exchange rate could appreciate and stabilise within the N1450 to N1500 per dollar band.
He bets on higher oil production and export earnings, improved FX supply from rising reserves, policy reforms that could reduce arbitrage and speculation, favourable inflation-interest differentials that might attract capital flows, and a moderation in import demand due to fiscal and trade measures.
Mr Rewane further explained that sustained exchange-rate stability could be central to investor confidence, business planning and macroeconomic predictability.
On overall economic performance, Rewane noted that Nigeria’s GDP growth could rise to 4.1 percent in 2026 owing to expanding business activity, infrastructure development, industrial-policy execution, stronger private-sector credit, better trade flows and higher domestic value addition. He stated that consumption could recover gradually due to slowing inflation, while investment spending might be supported by strong government-bond issuance and public infrastructure expansion.
Rewane identified six industries that could shape Nigeria’s economic direction in 2026: agriculture and agro-processing with projected earnings of N104.6 trillion; real estate and construction with N72.41 trillion; telecommunications with N41.07 trillion; manufacturing with N38.25 trillion; the creative economy with N7.23 trillion; and technology and fintech with N2.97 trillion.
He noted that each of these sectors was undergoing its own structural transformation, fuelled by demographic pressure, digital expansion, urbanisation, regional trade integration and the broader macroeconomic adjustment.
Corporate earnings, according to Rewane, would be one of the strongest indicators of renewed economic vitality next year.
He predicted that MTN Nigeria and Dangote Cement wuld be standout performers. MTN could see the first quarter (Q1) 2026 revenue of N1.7 trillion and the second quarter (Q2) earnings of N2.22 trillion, driven by data-led growth, cost efficiency and tariff adjustments.
Dangote Cement, on the other hand, could post Q1 2026 revenue of N1.3 trillion and Q2 revenue of N1.37 trillion, with profit after tax in Q2 jumping by more than 100 percent to N628 billion, boosted by clinker exports, infrastructure demand and regional expansion.
