NIGERIA’S economic activity sustained its growth streak for the 11th consecutive month in October 2025, as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.4 points, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) latest report released on Wednesday. This is an indication that the government’s reforms are gradually gaining traction.

The October reading, up from 54.0 points in September, indicates stronger and broad-based expansion across key sectors of the economy, reflecting rising business confidence and improved output performance nationwide.

According to the report, 25 of the 36 subsectors surveyed recorded expansion during the month, indicating the longest stretch of economic growth since the PMI began tracking post-pandemic recovery.

Industrial sector

The industrial PMI rose to 54.2 points in October from 51.4 points in September, showing a notable rebound in manufacturing and production activities. Nine of the 17 subsectors within the industrial group expanded, reinforcing the sector’s role in sustaining overall economic growth.

Services sector

The services sector, Nigeria’s largest non-oil contributor, maintained its upward momentum with a PMI reading of 55.6 points, reflecting sustained expansion for the 9th straight month. Eleven of the 14 service subsectors grew during the review period, an indication of the sector’s resilience and broad-based performance.

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Agriculture sector

Agriculture remained the most consistent growth driver, posting a PMI of 55.7 points, its fifteenth consecutive month of expansion, which is the longest among all three sectors. All five agricultural subsectors expanded, reaffirming the sector’s central role in supporting Nigeria’s economic recovery. However, it recorded the widest gap between input and output prices (8.4 index points), suggesting rising production costs relative to selling prices.

Broader indicators

Other key PMI components also strengthened in October, including output index, 57.2 points; new orders, 56 points; employment Index: 53.8 points; stock of raw materials index, 53.6 points; and suppliers’ delivery time index, 54.8 points.

These improvements indicate better supply chain efficiency, higher production levels, and continued hiring activity across sectors.

Of the 36 subsectors tracked, educational services posted the strongest growth, while petroleum and coal products led mild contractions in 11 subsectors.

Overall, the sustained expansions across industry, services, and agriculture underscore the strengthening of Nigeria’s growth fundamentals and point to a positive outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The reform-minded Bola Tinubu administration has introduced major reforms since coming to power in 2023. It deregulated the downstream petroleum sector, removing costly but abused subsidies. It likewise de-subsidised the foreign exchange market, making it market-driven, rather than centrally controlled by the CBN.  

“The PMI report reflects respondents’ views and does not represent the position of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The CBN cannot be held liable for any actions taken based on the survey responses,” the apex bank noted.

Numbers vs people

Though the numbers are positive, people’s lives aren’t getting better. The World Bank said in its ‘Nigeria Development Update’ released recently that though growth had picked up and revenues and reserves rising, poverty was skyrocketing in Africa’s most populous nation.

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“In 2025 we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty. So the challenge is clear, how to translate the gains from the stabilisation reforms into better living standards for all,” said World Bank’s Country Director, Mr Mathew Verghis.

Mr Verhis noted that food inflation was having dire effects on Nigerians, particularly the poor, and had the potential to undermine political support for the reforms. He urged the Bola Tinubu government to “use public resources more effectively, ensuring that spending drives real development results that benefit people and expanding the safety net so that the poorest and vulnerable get support.”

He noted that “macroeconomic stability alone is not enough. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians—especially the poor and vulnerable.”