Nigeria’s inflation climbs to 15.69%, remains fragile despite moderation signs

NIGERIA’S headline inflation rate increased to 15.69 percent in April 2026, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The figure represents a rise from the 15.38 percent recorded in March, indicating a 0.31 percentage point increase in the country’s overall inflation rate.

In its report published on Friday, the NBS said the uptick reflected continued pressure on consumer prices across key sectors of the economy.

Despite the year-on-year increase, the bureau noted that inflation slowed on a monthly basis. It said headline inflation stood at 2.13 percent in April, lower than the 4.18 percent recorded in March.

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“This means that in April 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in March 2026,” the NBS said.

Food inflation also rose year-on-year to 16.06 percent in April 2026, although this was significantly below the 24.68 percent recorded in April 2025.

On a month-on-month basis, however, food inflation eased to 3.63 percent from 4.17 percent in March, according to the statistics agency.

The NBS attributed the rise in food prices to increases in the average cost of staples and agricultural products including millet, yam flour, fresh ginger, beef, garri, yam tubers, fresh pepper, crayfish, cassava tubers, beans, Irish potatoes, tomatoes, soybeans, guinea corn, plantain and carrots.

Regionally, Enugu recorded the highest year-on-year food inflation rate at 32.67 percent, followed by Kwara at 30.77 percent and Adamawa at 30.14 percent.

By contrast, Borno posted the slowest rise in food inflation at 1.67 percent, while Jigawa and Taraba recorded 6.17 percent and 7.19 percent respectively.

On a month-on-month basis, Niger State recorded the sharpest increase in food inflation at 8.53 percent, ahead of Bauchi at 6.78 percent and Kogi at 6.72 percent.

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Kebbi, Katsina and Bayelsa recorded the slowest monthly increases in food inflation at 0.23 percent, 0.47 percent and 1.29 percent respectively.

The development comes as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to target a single-digit inflation rate of between 6 and 9 percent under its monetary policy framework.

The apex bank recently cautioned state governments against adopting expansionary fiscal measures, warning that uncoordinated spending could threaten Nigeria’s transition to an inflation-targeting regime.

Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains fragile, CPPE warns

Meanwhile, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) says Nigeria’s inflation outlook remains fragile despite signs of moderation in monthly inflationary pressures recorded in April 2026.

In a commentary released on Friday, Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, Muda Yusuf, said the country’s disinflation process was still vulnerable to both domestic and external shocks, particularly rising geopolitical tensions in the global energy market.

According to the CPPE, although the increase indicates that inflationary pressures remain elevated, the pace of acceleration was relatively moderate.

The economic think tank, however, noted that month-on-month inflation indicators showed a more encouraging trend. It said headline month-on-month inflation declined by 2.05 percent, while food inflation eased by 0.54 percent.

Core inflation also declined by 3 percent during the period, while urban inflation moderated by 1.3 percent and rural inflation fell sharply by 3.9 percent.

The organisation said the figures suggested that short-term inflationary momentum may be weakening.

Despite the moderation, the CPPE warned that inflation conditions remained severe for households and businesses, noting that food inflation stood at 16.06 percent while core inflation remained high at 15.86 percent.

It identified food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services as the major drivers of inflation, accounting for about 87 percent of inflationary pressure in April.

According to the CPPE, these categories represent essential household expenses that consume a significant share of income, especially among low-income Nigerians.

The group also expressed concern over the impact of rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States, saying the conflict had triggered renewed volatility in global crude oil prices.

It noted that higher crude prices were already transmitting increased energy costs into the domestic economy through rising petrol, diesel and gas prices.

The CPPE said the development was worsening transportation, logistics and production costs across sectors, with broader implications for food prices and consumer inflation.

The organisation argued that the situation highlights the structural and supply-side nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenge, stressing that monetary tightening alone would not solve inflation driven by energy costs, logistics inefficiencies, food supply disruptions and infrastructure deficits.

It warned that further tightening of monetary policy could increase financing costs for businesses, weaken investments and constrain productivity growth.

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Instead, the CPPE urged federal and state governments to focus more on supply-side reforms aimed at lowering energy costs, improving transport infrastructure, strengthening food supply systems, enhancing trade facilitation and supporting domestic productivity.

The think tank also advised businesses to adopt survival strategies such as improving energy efficiency, implementing dynamic pricing models and focusing on affordability-driven products as consumers become increasingly price-sensitive.

The CPPE concluded that sustained moderation in inflation would depend largely on structural reforms and targeted interventions to reduce the cost of food, transportation and energy across the economy.