A report says that deposit money banks that do not meet the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s recapitalisation deadline in 2026 will be forced to merge, while the new tax laws will trigger protests across Nigeria.

According to a new SMB Intellgence report seen by Economy Post, there will be calls for banks to merge in 2026. Already, 16 banks have already met their new capital requirements ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Mr Yemi Cardoso, said in November.

Mr Cardoso added that 14 banks were yet to meet the recapitalisation requirement as of November.  Access Bank, Zenith Bank, GTBank, Wema Bank, Jaiz Bank, Stanbic IBTC, Access Bank, Globus Bank, Premium Bank, among others, have met the requirements.

In early December, Mr Cardoso said 27 banks were raising new capital ahead of a sector-wide recapitalisation programme.

“Several banks have already met the new capital thresholds, while others are advancing steadily and are well-positioned to comfortably meet the March 31, 2026 deadline,” Cardoso said at the CIBN annual Bankers’ dinner on Friday.

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“To date, 27 banks have raised capital through public offers and rights issues, and 16 have already met or exceeded the new requirements — a clear testament to the depth, resilience, and capacity of Nigeria’s banking sector.”

However, some national banks are seen merging to meet the requirements, even though analysts predict that several tier-1 to tier-3 banks will meet them. Banks are making efforts to meet the CBN requirements through rights issue, mergers, public offers and private placements.

Tax reforms

The tax reforms are also another slippery slope as they come at a time Nigerians are recovering from reform shocks by way of high petrol prices, escalating cost of living and naira depreciation.

Though low-income Nigerians will breathe a sigh of relief due to a raft of tax reforms that will impact their lives positively, there are several contentious areas that could tigger protests. For example, middle- and high-income Nigerians will pay higher taxes as the new tax tends to be progressive.

Secondly, the capital gains tax (CGT) is a major issue that has garnered public attention. The CGT was raised from 10 percent to 30 percent. The CGT occurs when an investor is taxed on the profit when they sell or dispose of their assets that have increased in value. For instance, if you buy stocks for N10 per share and it appreciates to N15 per share, the government will take 30 percent of your N5/share gain. Imagine if you have 1 million shares, the government will take 30 percent of your N5 million profit, which amounts to N1.5 million.

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The tax implementation is expected to begin on January 1, 2026. The CGT will possibly be reduced to 25 percent in January, according to tax insiders. However, the lack of clarity around the tax is hurting the stock market, forcing investors to sell off their shares now and take whatever is left.

Analysts have particularly raised concerns over the impact of the CGT on the Nigerian stock market, with several of them pointing at sell-offs, negative effect on portfolio investment and lack of competitiveness with Nigeria’s emerging markets peers.

However, Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has provided clarity on the matter already, saying that 30 percent or 25 percent CGT would only be charged on sales of shares where the proceeds would be reinvested in fixed income securities or other non-equity assets. This means that if you sell your shares and then re-invest your profits in bonds or commercial papers or other investments that are not stocks, you will pay the CGT.

Mr Oyedele further explained that the majority of retail investors would not be affected, as the exemption threshold of N150 million annually put over 90 percent of retail investors outside the scope. This means that several investors doing stock transactions below N150 million would not be affected by the CGT.

But according to SBM Intelligence, “Protests are expected to coalesce as new tax laws take effect, and their effects
become clearer,” meaning that several Nigerians who aren’t sure about the tax reforms now will rise against it when they begin to feel their negative impact on their earnings.