Iran war: IMF unveils $50bn plan for Nigeria, others as oil nears $100 again

THE International Monetary Fund on Wednesday revealed it is considering a financial support package of up to $50 billion to help Nigeria and other vulnerable economies absorb the economic shocks stemming from heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran and the Middle East. The move comes as fears of supply disruptions continue to unsettle global energy markets.

Brent hovers around $96.21 per barrel on Thursday morning in West Africa, reflecting a delicate balance between easing expectations of renewed diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran, and lingering concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict. Murban Crude sells at $100.4, while WTI goes at $92.39 at 11.38am.

Market sentiment has also been influenced by remarks from Donald Trump, who suggested the Iran conflict could be nearing an end. His comments helped calm short-term panic, even as uncertainty persists after he unveiled plans to block Iranian ports.

Amid this backdrop, IMF Managing Director, Ms Kristalina Georgieva, said the Fund is weighing a range of interventions to support Nigeria and other African economies facing pressure from the crisis. Many of these countries, particularly energy importers, are experiencing worsening macroeconomic conditions due to the ongoing instability.

READ ALSO: IMF, World Bank pledge support as Iran war drives fertiliser surge, food security concerns

Speaking at the launch of the Global Policy Agenda during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, Georgieva disclosed that the institution is preparing to scale up its crisis response. She noted that potential financing could range between $20 billion and $50 billion for countries grappling with external shocks and constrained fiscal space.

Georgieva emphasised that the impact of the conflict is uneven, disproportionately affecting countries with high import dependence and limited financial buffers. According to her, many sub-Saharan African economies fall into this high-risk category, prompting urgent discussions on targeted support.

She reiterated that the IMF’s primary role is to help member countries build resilience through sound policies in stable periods, enabling them to better protect citizens during crises. While acknowledging improvements made by several African nations, she stressed that the current situation demands coordinated global action.

The IMF is working closely with partners such as the International Energy Agency and the World Bank to strengthen a unified response to the crisis.

On policy direction, Georgieva advised caution. For countries with well-calibrated monetary policies and stable expectations, a ‘wait-and-see’ approach may be appropriate. However, others may need to act swiftly to stabilise their economies.

She also warned about mounting global debt levels, noting that public debt could exceed 100 percent of global GDP by 2029, a level last seen after World War II. Policymakers, she said, must strike a balance between maintaining fiscal discipline and protecting vulnerable populations.

Georgieva further disclosed that discussions with African finance ministers and central bank governors are ongoing, urging countries in need of assistance to seek support early to minimise economic damage.

At a separate Fiscal Monitor briefing, IMF official, Mr Davide Furceri, highlighted that fiscal pressures will persist globally, though with varying impacts, noting a clear divide between oil-importing and oil-exporting nations.

For oil producers like Nigeria, elevated crude prices could provide temporary revenue gains. However, he stressed the importance of using such windfalls prudently to rebuild fiscal buffers and reduce debt burdens.

Furceri also pointed to rising shipping costs and volatile input prices, which are likely to weigh on both production and consumption. In more fragile economies, these pressures could worsen poverty and food insecurity.

Turning to oil markets, prices stabilised after earlier declines, supported by ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels following Iran’s earlier move to restrict passage, affecting a major share of global oil and LNG flows.

The United States has also imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, effectively halting much of the country’s seaborne trade. Despite this, limited commercial movement continues through the strategic waterway.

Supply constraints have forced refiners to seek alternative sources, driving up premiums for crude from regions such as the U.S. Gulf Coast and the North Sea. Reports indicate that shipments of U.S. crude to Europe are now trading at record premiums.

READ ALSO: IMF lowers Nigeria’s 2026 growth outlook to 4.1% amid global pressures

Meanwhile, Trump reiterated that the conflict could soon end, expressing confidence that Iran is willing to negotiate. While reports suggest a possible extension of the current ceasefire, U.S. officials maintain that no formal agreement has been reached, though diplomatic engagement is ongoing.

Looking ahead, Trump predicted that global markets would rebound strongly once the conflict subsides, adding that oil prices are likely to decline as tensions ease.

However, risks remain elevated. Iran has warned it could expand the conflict by targeting shipping routes in the Red Sea, as well as the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, if the U.S. blockade continues. Iranian military officials described the blockade as a violation of the ceasefire and signalled readiness to escalate if necessary.

Despite these threats, U.S. Central Command stated that the blockade has already significantly curtailed Iran’s economic activity, even as some maritime traffic continues through critical global trade routes.