Inflation rises to 15.93% as CPPE links pressure to Middle East tensions

NIGERIA’S headline inflation rate rose to 15.93 percent in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase this year, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday.

The figure represents an increase from the 15.69 percent recorded in April 2026, although it remains significantly below the 26.06 percent posted in May 2025.

The NBS said the May inflation rate increased by 0.24 percentage points compared with the previous month.

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate rose to 15.93%, up from 15.69% in April 2026 and down from 26.06% in the same month of the preceding year,” the NBS said.

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Despite the annual increase, the NBS noted that inflationary pressures eased on a month-on-month basis. Headline inflation slowed to 1.75 percent in May from 2.13 percent in April, indicating a slower pace of price increases.

Food inflation also edged higher on a year-on-year basis, rising to 16.96 percent from 16.68 percent in April. However, it was lower than the 24.55 percent recorded in May 2025.

According to the NBS, food inflation on a month-on-month basis moderated to 2.98 percent in May from 3.63 percent in April, driven by changes in the prices of products such as onions, maize, melon, yam, cassava flour, crayfish, fresh pepper and tomatoes.

State-level data showed that food inflation was highest on a year-on-year basis in Adamawa, Kwara and Rivers states, while Borno, Taraba and Bayelsa recorded the slowest rise. On a monthly basis, Bauchi, Ogun and Jigawa posted the highest food inflation rates, while Niger, Katsina and Gombe recorded the slowest increases.

Impact of Middle East tensions

Reacting to the report, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said the marginal increase in inflation reflected the impact of recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets and supply chains.

In a policy brief signed by its Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Muda Yusuf, the CPPE said higher crude oil prices, rising marine insurance costs, disruptions to shipping routes and increased import costs had combined to exert upward pressure on domestic prices.

The economic policy group, however, said underlying indicators pointed to a more encouraging trend, citing the moderation in both headline and food inflation on a month-on-month basis.

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According to the CPPE, the slowdown in monthly inflation suggests that while inflationary pressures remain, the pace of price increases is easing.

The organisation identified food and beverages, transportation, housing, energy, health and education as the main drivers of inflation, noting that these categories account for about 87 percent of headline inflation.

It added that persistent insecurity in key food-producing areas continues to constrain agricultural production, disrupt supply chains and raise transportation costs, thereby sustaining food inflation.

“The inflation challenge remains largely cost-push in nature,” the CPPE said, arguing that policy responses should focus on reducing production and distribution costs rather than relying solely on monetary tightening.

The group called for measures to improve food security, strengthen logistics infrastructure, expand mass transit and rail transportation, enhance energy security and restore safety in farming communities.

Looking ahead, the CPPE expressed cautious optimism that easing tensions in the Middle East and the recent moderation in crude oil prices from around $90 per barrel to about $83 per barrel could help reduce inflationary pressures in the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

For now, it maintained that the latest inflation increase appears to be driven more by external shocks and structural constraints than by domestic macroeconomic instability.