NIGERIA’s economy is expected to expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025, as the effects of government reforms and improving macroeconomic fundamentals begin to take firmer hold, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The forecast is contained in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, which was formally unveiled at a hybrid press conference scheduled on Monday at the National Bank of Belgium in Brussels.
In its regional outlook, the IMF said economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa was projected to pick up, increasing from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 2027. The improvement reflects ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation and the implementation of structural reforms in several major economies across the region.
Globally, the IMF expects growth to remain broadly stable, even as momentum in high-technology sectors cools. Although activity in these sectors is set to moderate, it should still help cushion weaker performance in other parts of the global economy. It noted that tariffs and heightened uncertainty would continue to weigh on activity in the near term, though their drag on growth is expected to ease gradually through 2026 and 2027.
World output is projected to grow by 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, compared with an estimated 3.3 percent in 2025. The IMF revised its 2026 growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage point from the October 2025 WEO, while leaving the 2027 estimate unchanged. It added, however, that country-level revisions varied widely, with growth prospects diverging across economies.
Despite signs of resilience, the IMF cautioned that downside risks to the global outlook persist. It said recent strength had been concentrated in a narrow set of sectors and, in many cases, supported by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, leaving the global economy exposed to sector-specific shocks and deeper structural vulnerabilities.
Emerging market and developing economies are expected to remain the main engines of global growth. China is projected to expand by 4.5 percent, reflecting a slower but steady pace consistent with ongoing structural rebalancing. India, with growth forecast at 6.4 percent, is expected to retain its position as the fastest-growing major economy, driven by strong domestic demand and investment. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.6 percent, with Nigeria’s 4.4 percent expansion supported by reform momentum and continued growth in the services sector. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s projected 4.5 percent growth reflects economic diversification efforts and a normalization of oil-sector activity.
Growth in advanced economies is expected to remain modest but stable. The United States is forecast to grow by 2.4 percent, benefiting from easing financial conditions and productivity gains linked to technology adoption. The Euro Area is projected to see gradual improvement, with Germany growing by 1.1 percent, France by 1.0 percent and the United Kingdom by 1.3 percent, although weak investment and structural constraints continue to weigh on potential output. Japan’s economy is expected to expand by 0.7 percent, constrained by demographic headwinds and subdued domestic demand.
