CPPE: Tinubu’s reforms rescued economy but Nigerians yet to feel relief

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has said the first 3 years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration were largely focused on rescuing Nigeria’s economy from deep macroeconomic instability, although the reforms have yet to deliver broad-based improvements in living standards.

In a policy review entitled ‘Three Years of the Tinubu Administration: From Stabilization to Shared Prosperity,’ CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the administration inherited an economy weighed down by foreign exchange (FX) illiquidity, unsustainable fiscal practices, weak investor confidence and severe structural distortions.

According to the report, Nigeria’s external reserves had reportedly fallen below $5 billion when the administration assumed office in 2023, while multiple exchange rates, widespread arbitrage and heavy dependence on Ways and Means financing had pushed the economy close to a tipping point.

Macreconomic stability

The think tank said the government’s immediate priority was therefore to restore macroeconomic stability and rebuild investor confidence before pursuing growth expansion.

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CPPE identified the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of the FX market as the two most significant reforms undertaken by the administration.

It noted that the fuel subsidy regime had become a major source of fiscal leakages, corruption and rent-seeking, while also crowding out productive public investment. The removal of the subsidy, according to the organisation, helped halt what it described as fiscal haemorrhage and laid the groundwork for a more transparent downstream petroleum sector.

Similarly, the report said exchange rate unification addressed long-standing distortions created by multiple exchange windows, improving price discovery and reducing arbitrage opportunities in the forex market.

However, the organisation acknowledged that the reforms triggered severe adjustment costs across the economy.

CPPE said inflation surged sharply following the reforms as energy prices, transportation costs and production expenses climbed, while naira depreciation intensified imported inflation pressures.

The organisation added that the consequences included declining real incomes, worsening poverty levels and a deepening cost-of-living crisis for many Nigerians.

Despite these challenges, the group said there were signs of macroeconomic recovery and improved stability.

According to the report, external reserves have risen significantly, with gross reserves approaching the $50 billion mark, while trade balance conditions have remained positive. It also stated that exchange rate volatility has moderated since 2025 and investor confidence has strengthened.

The report further noted that the economy recorded 11 consecutive months of disinflation between early 2025 and February 2026 before inflationary pressures resurfaced following the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict in March 2026, which triggered higher global crude oil prices and increased domestic energy and transportation costs.

CPPE also highlighted strong performance in the capital market, noting that the Nigerian Exchange All Share Index rose from about 55,700 points in 2023 to more than 254,000 points in 2026, while market capitalisation increased from roughly B30 trillion to over N160 trillion.

The organisation added that the discontinuation of Ways and Means financing had improved monetary discipline, although it also exposed underlying weaknesses in public finance management.

CPPE also identified the emergence of domestic refining capacity, particularly through the Dangote Refinery, as a major positive development for the economy.

According to the report, reduced reliance on imported petroleum products has strengthened FX conservation, improved energy security and contributed to greater exchange rate stability.

However, the organisation warned that major structural and social challenges remain unresolved.

It said macroeconomic stability has not yet translated into meaningful welfare improvements for ordinary Nigerians, as inflation remains elevated and consumer purchasing power weak.

The report also identified insecurity as a major threat to economic recovery, warning that persistent attacks on farming communities continue to undermine food production, worsen inflation and weaken rural livelihoods.

CPPE further stated that high energy costs, poor infrastructure, logistics bottlenecks, elevated interest rates and policy inconsistency continue to constrain industrial competitiveness and job creation.

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Fiscal sustainability

On fiscal sustainability, the organisation noted that Nigeria’s public debt rose to N159.3 trillion as of December 2025, partly driven by naira depreciation and the securitisation of legacy Ways and Means liabilities estimated at N 23 trillion.

While acknowledging efforts to curb monetary financing, CPPE said revenue growth has not sufficiently closed the financing gap, adding that pending tax reforms could help strengthen fiscal capacity and ease sustainability concerns.

The organisation also stressed the importance of transparency, fiscal discipline and accountability in sustaining public support for reforms.

According to CPPE, Nigerians expect government officials and the political elite to share in the sacrifices associated with economic adjustment, arguing that public trust remains essential for the long-term sustainability of reforms.

The group concluded that while the first phase of the Tinubu administration focused on stabilising the economy, the next phase must concentrate on inclusive growth, job creation, poverty reduction, improved security and higher living standards.

“Macroeconomic stability may rescue an economy from the brink, but inclusive prosperity is what secures public confidence and sustains the reform journey,” the report stated.