.Targets 2.06mbpd, $64 oil price, N1,512/$1 exchange rate, N34.33trn revenue target
AFTER failing to fully implement the 2024 and the 2025 budgets, the Bola Tunubu-led administration on Wednesday unveiled the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for transmission to the National Assembly.
MTEF outlines Nigeria’s key economic benchmarks, projected revenues, and fiscal direction for the next three years.
Under the new framework, the Nigerian government is projecting crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day (mbpd), though a more conservative 1.8mbpd will serve as the benchmark for budget planning. The crude oil price benchmark was set at $64 per barrel, while the naira is expected to average N1,512/$1 in 2026.
The government is projecting revenue of N34.33 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year. The implication of the 2026 budget assumptions is that the Nigerian government understood how unreallistic its 2025 oil price assumption was and has tried to correct it. However, it remains adamant on oil output of 2.06 million barrels per day, despite falling short of that in 2025.
READ ALSO: Thirty-eight days to 2026, Tinubu fiddles with 2024 budget, runs 2025 blind
In 2025, the Nigerian government projected an average crude oil production of 2.06mbpd, which was a significant increase from the 1.5 mbpd recorded in 2024. The oil price benchmark stood at $75 per barrel, slightly lower than the $79.9 per barrel average in 2024.
Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Mr Atiku Bagudu, revealed these numbers to newsmen after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.
Mr Bagudu said that macroeconomic reforms currently taking hold must be sustained to unlock stronger, long-term economic growth.
“For the first time, a target oil production as well as a benchmark production figure were adopted. The target is 2.06mbpd, but for revenue prudence we are using 1.8mbpd for the 2026 budget,” he said.
The Nigerian government also approved an oil price benchmark of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,512/$ for 2026, Mr Bagudu said, noting that the exchange rate assumption considered the uncertainty that typically preceded an election year.
He disclosed that Nigeria’s projected revenue from all sources stood at N34.33 trillion, including a N4.98 trillion in independent revenue. This, he noted, was 16 percent lower than the 2025 budget estimate.
He further said that statutory transfers would amount to about N3 trillion, debt service N10.91 trillion, while personnel costs and other non-debt recurrent spending would total N15.27 trillion. The deficit is projected at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP).
Bagudu disclosed that the FEC also approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which set spending limits and reinforced fiscal discipline.
Poor execution of 2024, 2025 budgets
Economy Post reported in November that one month to the end of 2025, President Bola Tinubu’s government was yet to implement the 2024 budget fully and had left this year’s fiscal plan in limbo, stalling several programmes that should uplift the lives of citizens
READ ALSO : How Tinubu allocated N2bn to Citizenship and Leadership Centre which is offering little value
For much of the year, several government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) have been cash-trapped, unable to execute projects meant for the year. A number of contractors are yet to receive payment for the work done, while many who secured loans to executive contracts are strugglng to repay their facilities.
On November 6, aggrieved local contractors, lawyers and civil society activists barricaded the major entry and exit points of the National Assembly complex in protest over a N3 trillion debt owed them by the Nigerian government.
Speaking during the protest, National President of the All Indigenous Contractors Association of Nigeria, Mr Jackson Nwosu, said the group was left with no choice due to the government’s unmet promises.
“We are here because the Federal Government refused to pay contractors and we have brought the case to the parliament to address our grievances,” he said.
“This thing are capital projects that had already been executed and we have been pushing for payment since 2024. They are owing our association alone over N3 trillion.”
According to Mr Nwosu, the group had had meetings with Federal Ministry of Finance, the Accountant General of the Federation and even met with the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Benjamin Kalu, sometime around September 4, yet nothing came out of the meetings.
“But we have heard that the problem is from the Presidency. Yesterday, a senator came to assure us that our matter will be looked into. So, we will continue to block the entrance of the National Assembly until we get our alerts.”
The major but understated problem is that President Tinubu’s administration has upset the January to December budget cycle that was labouriosly achieved after 12 years under late President Buhari.
Apart from years 2001 and 2007, Nigeria had the signing of its annual budgets delayed late into a new fiscal year since 1999, resulting in poor implementation of the budget. But this was corrected and returned to the January-December cycle in 2019 when late President Muhammadu Buhari’s administation was finalising the 2020 budget.
“The January to December cycle encourages certainty and helps investors to understand the government’s direction for the following year,” said an economist, Mr Patrick Osuagwu.
“It provides the certainty needed by all economic agents to plan and make projections.”
However, this has been upended by the Tinubu administration.
