Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has forecast that the planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in 2026 could significantly expand the size of the country’s equity market, pushing total capitalisation beyond N200 trillion.

Rewane spoke at the 2026 Economic Outlook Summit organised by RCCG Christ Church in Lagos, where he shared his outlook on Nigeria’s economic trajectory, with particular focus on the capital market and foreign exchange (FX) trends.

He described the expected listing of the Dangote Refinery as a landmark development for the Nigerian capital market, given the refinery’s massive valuation and strategic importance to the economy.

According to Rewane, if the refinery is listed at current market estimates, it could raise total market capitalisation from roughly N105 trillion to more than N200 trillion.

“We are anticipating the Dangote Refinery listing. At today’s valuations, it could move the market from about N105 trillion to over N200 trillion,” he said.

Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group

He noted that such a development would enhance liquidity in the market and potentially rank the NGX among the largest emerging market exchanges by size.

READ ALSO: Bismark Rewane says naira still undervalued by 11%

Turning to the foreign exchange outlook, Rewane said the naira was likely to come under gradual pressure and could slide to around N1,590 per dollar by the end of 2026, even though he said the US dollar would weaken globally.

At the 2026 Economic Outlook forum hosted by the Association of Corporate Treasurers of Nigeria (ACTN), where he served as keynote speaker, Mr Rewane had said the naira was about 11 percent undervalued when measured against global purchasing power.

According to Mr Rewane, the purchasing power parity (PPP)-implied exchange rate placed the naira at approximately N1,256.79 to the dollar. He explained that while currencies might deviate in the short term, they generally adjusted towards their fundamental value over a medium-term period of around five years.

Naira outlook

But at the RCCG economic outlook, he explained that the dollar’s outlook was being shaped by policy dynamics in the United States, including interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, which could reduce the greenback’s strength against other currencies.

“The dollar will weaken because of a number of forces. There is a Federal Reserve meeting coming up this month, which will give more clarity on interest rates and policy direction. Overall, we expect the dollar to be weaker this year against major currencies,” he said.

Bismark Rewane

Rewane observed that the naira had remained largely stable throughout 2025, although emerging signs of pressure were becoming evident. He pointed to the widening spread between official and parallel market rates, now estimated at about N71.

“The exchange rate has been fairly stable in 2025, but the growing gap between official and parallel market rates suggests renewed stress in the FX market,” he noted.

2026 outlook in December 2025

At a presentation at the Parthian Economic Discourse 2025 in Lagos on December 9, Mr Rewane had predicted that 2026 could be a defining year in which structural reforms, private-sector expansion and improved policy coordination might converge to reposition Nigeria for a real economic turnaround.

He had predicted an expanding capital market, noting that the Nigerian Exchange’s total market capitalisation could jump to N262 trillion in 2026, up sharply from the current N90 trillion, representing a 191 percent increase, on the back of Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s listing.

READ ALSO: Rewane sees 2026 as turning point for Nigeria’s economy, naira, markets

According to him, the market would represent 72 percent of Nigeria’s projected gross domestic product (GDP), placing it among the fastest-expanding markets in the emerging-economies universe.

He had bet on listings of mega corporates, including the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), alongside accelerations of profitability across sectors such as telecoms, cement, consumer goods and banking.

According to him, investor sentiment was already shifting due to improving foreign exchange (FX) stability, sustained disinflation and stronger earnings guidance from top-tier companies.

He noted that Nigeria’s equity market was entering a new cycle powered by corporate expansion, regulatory reforms and the return of long-delayed market-moving listings, noting that slowing inflation in 2026 could be one of the most important pivot points for Nigeria’s recovery.

He predicted that food and core inflation could fall to around 20 percent, fuelled by a firm disinflationary stance by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), improvements in domestic refining capacity that could reduce volatility in fuel prices, stronger manufacturing output, rising productivity, and reforms aimed at lowering logistics and supply-chain costs.

With inflation easing, he noted an improvement in household purchasing power, which could, in turn, boost demand across retail, services and industrial sectors.

On monetary policy, Rewane said that 2026 could mark the beginning of cautious interest-rate cuts by the CBN after nearly two years of aggressive tightening, warning that the apex bank must move slowly and conditionally.