Dangote Refinery, Fertiliser listings to shake up NGX despite market risks

Nigeria’s capital market is gearing up for what could be among the largest industrial listings in recent years, as Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest industrialist, prepares to offer stakes in Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser Limited on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The potential listings have sparked investor interest, but analysts caution that while the opportunities are significant, so are the risks.

High-profile listings

Dangote plans to list a portion of his refinery – reportedly 5 percent to 10 percent initially – and the fertiliser business on the NGX. For the refinery, a key innovation is the proposed payment of dividends in US dollars, a first in Nigeria, aimed at mitigating concerns over local currency volatility. The fertiliser listing is expected to follow soon, reflecting the company’s ambitions to expand its agricultural footprint and appeal to domestic and regional markets.

“You buy in naira, but you get dividends in dollars,” President of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, said in December in Lagos.

He noted that the payouts, which would be in dollars, would be fuelled by $6.4 billion in anticipated revenue from exports of polypropylene and fertiliser. Hence, he expects to have enough dollars for investors from export of the two vital products.

Dangote Fertilizer

He further said Dangote Group was projecting a revenue of $100 billion by 2030, from the current $18 billion.

READ ALSO: Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote plans biggest refinery in the world

But analysts have warned that though the listing of these industrial assets is likely to draw both retail and institutional investors, investors should carefully weigh the fundamentals against macroeconomic uncertainties.

The case for investor interest

Both businesses operate in sectors with structural demand. The Dangote Refinery, built at a cost of roughly $20 billion, has a refining capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day, enough to meet most of Nigeria’s domestic fuel demand and potentially supply neighbouring countries. For investors, this scale suggests a strong revenue base if operational efficiencies are maintained.

Meanwhile, Dangote Fertiliser produces around 3 million metric tonnes annually, exceeding local demand. With Nigeria historically dependent on fertiliser imports, local production could reduce costs for farmers and open export opportunities across Africa.

Analysts note that these factors provide a solid business foundation. “You are looking at companies with near-monopoly positions in essential sectors, which, in theory, should translate into stable cash flows,” said an investment strategist, Mr Kayode Adeola.

Risks and market considerations

Despite the potential, the listings are not without risks. Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment is volatile, with inflation, currency fluctuations, and regulatory uncertainty potentially affecting profits. Moreover, Dangote’s decision to pay refinery dividends in dollars, while attractive, introduces exposure to foreign exchange (FX) markets, which can amplify risk if not managed carefully.

Operational challenges are another factor. Large-scale refining and fertiliser production require consistent maintenance and management efficiency. Any disruptions could affect earnings and, by extension, investor returns.

Also, political interference can ruin the entire exercise. Aliko Dangote has fought nearly all regulators in the oil and gas sectors, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Ni.Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), and Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited ( though no longer a regulator but still acts as one). This could also be risky as the general election beckons.

Capital market implications

If successful, the listings could reshape Nigeria’s equity market. The refinery and fertiliser stocks would become some of the largest by market capitalisation, attracting foreign portfolio investors and potentially driving liquidity in the NGX. Market watchers are also observing whether the listings could set benchmarks for future large-scale infrastructure companies seeking capital through public offerings.

Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, forecasts that the planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in 2026 could significantly expand the size of the country’s equity market, pushing total capitalisation beyond N200 trillion.

“We are anticipating the Dangote Refinery listing. At today’s valuations, it could move the market from about N105 trillion to over N200 trillion,” he said in January, 2026

READ ALSO: Fortis Global Insurance ex-director uses 250 hectares as collateral for N40m loan

However, some investors are cautious. “High-profile listings often see initial hype and price volatility,” noted a senior trader. “
“Long-term returns will depend on consistent operational performance and broader economic conditions.”

Balancing opportunity and caution

The Dangote refinery and fertiliser listings represent a rare opportunity to own stakes in major industrial assets that influence Nigeria’s economy. Yet, investors will need to carefully consider valuation, timing, and broader market conditions before committing capital.

As Nigeria’s stock market continues to seek growth and diversification, these listings will be closely watched, not just for their potential returns, but for their role in signalling how large industrial players can engage with public markets. The coming months will reveal whether these highly anticipated IPOs deliver the balance of investment opportunity and risk that market participants are expecting.