AFC: Africa needs two more Dangote-sized refineries to close rising fuel demand gap

AFRICA will require at least two additional refineries of the scale of the Dangote Refinery to meet its rapidly growing fuel consumption, according to the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) in its State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report (SAIR) 2026 released on Thursday.

The report was presented in Nairobi, Kenya, at the Africa We Build Summit by AFC’s Chief Economist and Director of Research and Strategy, Ms Rita Babihuga-Nsanze.

She said the findings highlight Africa’s continued vulnerability due to its reliance on exporting raw materials while importing most refined petroleum products.

Babihuga-Nsanze noted that about 70 percent of refined fuel consumed in Africa is imported, leaving the continent exposed to global supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks. She added that demand is projected to rise by 56 percent by 2040, creating an import gap of around 86 million tonnes, equivalent to at least two additional Dangote-sized refineries. She also pointed out that East Africa offers strong potential for refining investments due to its limited existing infrastructure.

READ ALSO: Dangote Petroleum Refinery begins nationwide petrol sales at N739/litre through MRS stations

The report, entitled ‘The Africa We Build: From Capital to Systems,’ shifts the focus from infrastructure scarcity to system inefficiency, arguing that Africa’s challenge lies in connecting existing assets into productive networks.

It notes that Africa holds more than $4 trillion in domestic capital across banking, pensions, insurance, sovereign funds, and development finance institutions, but much of it remains underutilised due to weak investment channels for long-term infrastructure projects.

The AFC also warns of declining external financing, highlighting a 23 percent drop in official development assistance to Africa in 2025, the largest annual decline on record.

In transport, the report criticises the continent’s ‘pit-to-port’ export model and calls for integrated systems that support industrialisation and intra-African trade.

It also highlights aviation as a key driver of regional growth under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), citing Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia as examples of countries leveraging liberalised air transport to boost economic activity and jobs.

On energy, the report says Africa’s current power expansion rate of 6.5 gigawats to 8 gigawatts annually is far below the estimated 20 gigawatts needed to support development, calling for regional integration, stronger transmission systems, and greater private sector participation.

Across sectors, the AFC concludes that Africa’s core challenge is not a lack of resources, but the absence of integrated systems to unlock value at scale.

READ ALSO: Africa faces economic risks from fuel import dependence, Dangote cautions

African Union Commission (AUC) Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy, Lerato Mataboge, said the findings align with continental initiatives like the Single African Air Transport Market and the Single Electricity Market Programme, but stressed that implementation is slow due to weak coordination and national-focused planning.

AFC President Samaila Zubairu also emphasised that Africa’s challenge is no longer capital scarcity, but the inability to convert available capital into productive investments, jobs, and industrial growth.