Power generation slumps to 4,300MW as gas supply falls 57%

NIGERIA’s worsening blackouts are being driven largely by a steep decline in gas supply to thermal power plants, according to the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), which oversees grid operations.

In a notice issued Friday via its official X platform and entitled ‘Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations,’ the system operator disclosed that average available electricity generation has dropped to about 4,300 megawatts, which is significantly below the country’s installed capacity.

NISO linked the persistent outages across homes and businesses to severe fuel shortages affecting thermal generating stations, which make up the bulk of Nigeria’s power mix. According to the operator, the constrained gas supply has sharply reduced the volume of electricity that can be dispatched to Distribution Companies (DisCos).

The disruption dates back to early February, when scheduled maintenance works on critical gas infrastructure by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy temporarily interrupted gas deliveries to several power plants. That maintenance triggered a nationwide dip in generation, a situation that has lingered due to continued supply limitations.

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Explaining the scale of the challenge, NISO revealed that thermal plants require roughly 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (mmscf) of gas daily to function optimally. However, as of February 23, 2026, actual supply stood at only about 692.00 mmscf per day, significantly less than 43 percent of the volume required.

“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output,” the operator stated, noting that the shortfall has forced a corresponding reduction in energy allocations to DisCos nationwide.

Because gas-fired stations account for more than 70 percent of Nigeria’s grid electricity, any disruption in fuel supply has an immediate and system-wide impact. NISO emphasised that thermal plants form the backbone of the national grid, meaning limited gas availability automatically translates into lower generation capacity and weaker overall output.

With generation falling far short of demand, the operator confirmed it has had to implement load shedding measures to maintain grid stability. It explained that when total system output declines sharply, the Independent System Operator must ration available power in line with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC)’s MYTO allocation formula across distribution networks to prevent grid disturbances or collapse.

The statement acknowledged the inconvenience caused to electricity consumers and market participants but assured that efforts are ongoing to address the situation. NISO said it is collaborating with relevant stakeholders to restore gas supply levels and ramp up generation as conditions improve.

Nigeria’s electricity market remains structurally vulnerable due to its heavy dependence on gas-fired thermal plants, with hydropower providing the remaining share. As a result, challenges such as pipeline vandalism, upstream production constraints, maintenance shutdowns, pricing disputes, foreign exchange pressures, and legacy debts within the power value chain frequently translate into nationwide supply shortages.

Liquidity constraints within the sector have also compounded the problem. Generating companies (GenCos) have repeatedly warned that weak remittances from DisCos limit their capacity to meet payment obligations to gas suppliers, creating a cycle that undermines fuel availability and power output.

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Although recent reforms unbundled the system operator from the Transmission Company of Nigeria in a bid to improve transparency and grid management, overall generation remains closely tied to consistent and commercially viable gas supply arrangements.

With national peak electricity demand estimated at over 20,000MW, the current average output of about 4,300MW highlights the magnitude of Nigeria’s supply deficit. Until gas deliveries stabilise and generation capacity rebounds, consumers across the country are likely to continue experiencing rationing and prolonged outages.