Planned gas maintenance knocks 935MW off Nigeria’s power supply, triggers outages

NIGERIA’s fragile electricity system is facing renewed pressure this week as scheduled maintenance on key gas infrastructure has forced the shutdown of nearly 1,000 megawatts of power generation, raising the prospect of widespread electricity outages across the country.

The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) disclosed that available generation capacity will decline by 934.96 megawatts (MW) between February 12 and February 15. The reduction represents a 19.67 percent drop from the current available output of 4,753.10MW, significantly narrowing the margin between supply and demand in Africa’s largest economy.

With less electricity flowing into the national grid, the system operator warned that distribution companies would have to implement structured load shedding to manage the imbalance. While essential services such as hospitals, water treatment facilities and security installations will be prioritised, households and businesses are expected to experience intermittent power supply during the maintenance period.

According to NISO, the generation shortfall is the direct result of routine maintenance being carried out by Seplat Energy, a major gas producer and joint venture partner supplying fuel into the Nigerian National Petroleum Company’s pipeline network. The maintenance, scheduled to last four days, involves a temporary shutdown of a major gas supply facility that feeds several power stations.

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In a statement issued on Thursday, NISO said the disruption followed a formal notification of the planned maintenance, stressing that the exercise was not the result of an emergency or system failure. The operator added that full gas supply was expected to resume on February 16, after which affected power plants should gradually return to normal operations.

The impact of the gas restriction will be felt most sharply by some of Nigeria’s largest thermal power stations. These include the 1,320MW Egbin Power Plant, the biggest in the country, as well as the Azura, Sapele and Transcorp power plants. NISO further noted that three additional facilities – NDPHC Sapele, Olorunsogo and Omotosho – may experience indirect constraints caused by network-wide gas balancing challenges.

The episode once again highlights the structural weaknesses of Nigeria’s power sector, which has struggled for decades to provide reliable electricity to a population of more than 200 million people. Although the country has an installed generation capacity of roughly 13,000MW, actual output rarely exceeds half that figure due to aging infrastructure, grid instability and persistent fuel shortages.

Gas supply disruptions remain one of the sector’s most enduring challenges. Despite holding Africa’s largest proven natural gas reserves, Nigeria frequently fails to channel sufficient volumes to domestic power plants. Large quantities of gas are exported or flared, while pipeline vandalism, operational inefficiencies and payment arrears owed by power generation companies continue to undermine supply reliability.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) confirmed that Seplat’s maintenance work was part of standard safety and asset-integrity protocols. The state-owned energy company said the exercise was necessary to ensure the long-term reliability of critical infrastructure and to minimise the risk of unplanned outages that could cause more severe disruptions.

NNPC added that it was coordinating closely with Seplat to ensure the maintenance would be completed within the scheduled timeframe. To soften the impact on power generation, the company said its gas marketing subsidiary had been mandated to engage alternative suppliers in an effort to stabilise gas flows across the network during the outage period.

Nonetheless, industry analysts say the situation underscores how exposed Nigeria’s electricity system remains, even to planned and well-communicated maintenance activities. Power generation companies, many of which are already under financial strain due to unpaid invoices, rising operating costs and lingering tariff shortfalls, are expected to face additional pressure as output declines.

The timing of the disruption is also politically sensitive. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has pledged sweeping reforms of the power sector, including market restructuring and the decentralisation of grid management. However, progress has been gradual, and frequent blackouts continue to fuel public frustration.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on gas-fired plants, accounting for more than 70 percent of electricity generation, leaves the grid highly vulnerable to upstream disruptions. While calls for greater investment in renewable energy and diversification of the energy mix are growing louder, significant regulatory, financing and infrastructure hurdles remain.

“Well, consumers will be left to contend with another reminder of how even routine maintenance can ripple through Nigeria’s power system,” said an energy sector analyst, Mr Tobias Ikem. “This will result in outages in a country where reliable electricity remains elusive.”